Turn Decision

[Scotch78]

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Well, obviously you called down and weren't happy about the result. Without a spectacular read that this person is 100% ABC, I'd be calling down as well and hoping to find AT, 2 diamonds, or to catch a 5-outer against his 2 pair.

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Yes, I called down, and yes, he did have a set. But that's not really my point. When he check-raised the turn I remember thinking three things:

1) I don't think he's loose enough to have two pair
2) I don't think he's tricky/aggressive enough to be making a move with top pair (or a flush draw)
3) Folding feels really weak

Roughly once or twice a day I find myself in situations like this, where I have thought-out reasons for folding but "don't want to be weak-tight". As a 13/7 player, I'm very (overly?) conscious of playing weak-tight, so I end up calling down more often than not.

Obviously, I don't want to make it a habit of being results-oriented when the "results" are as short-term as who won a specific hand, but the overwhelming majority of the time my thoughts are accurate. That is, the villain ends up being within the range of hands I put him on.

Historically, hand reading has not been one of my strengths, but I seem to be improving and am unsure how far to trust these instincts.

Scott