Gimme A Plan

#1 11-25-2005, 04:31 PM

BB is loose 57/13/0.9
Button is pretty decent 32/21/1.25

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero?

Spicymoose · #2 11-25-2005, 04:39 PM

I am equally confused. I think normally I bet, and then call down. Maybe we can fold the river unimproved? I guess check/calling down may be correct too. I really am confused in these situations...

#3 11-25-2005, 05:06 PM

Its tough. I think I am check calling down. :/

Lmn55d · #4 11-25-2005, 05:38 PM

Arguments for a bet:

- The pot is fairly big and you don't want to give a free card to gutshot (KQ/KJ/QJ), 5 out, 3 out hands (Kx) or (less significantly) 2 out hands (pocket pairs).

- If you are raised by button it is pretty obvious you are beaten. At that point you will be getting almost 11:1 if BB Folds and 13:1 if he calls with what will often have 2-5 outs (AQ is a very possible hand for button if he raises). Since you can't bet/fold, I guess this is sort of a negative for betting.

Arguments against betting:

- Sometimes it will go bet/raise after you check and you can fold.

- The A pairs AJ/AQ/AK which are 33 combos of preflop 3betting hands.

- If you know button will never bluff that ace, you can check/fold or check/call and fold river unimproved, depending on how many outs you give yourself and if BB calls.

If you could bet/fold I'd say it's a v. easy bet. Since you can't I think it's a little closer, but I'd still bet, especially if button's preflop 3betting hands includes like QJ/KJ/66/77.

wheelz · #5 11-25-2005, 05:44 PM

the button's range is quite likely to include hands like that. i think you do have to bet for protection, then call if you get raised. but check/fold on the river after that is the way to go. you shouldn't see a worse hand after that action very often.

#6 11-25-2005, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the button's range is quite likely to include hands like that. i think you do have to bet for protection, then call if you get raised. but check/fold on the river after that is the way to go. you shouldn't see a worse hand after that action very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you said this...situations like this one always perplex me.

If I bet the turn and get raised, isn't the button somewhere like a 4-1 favorite to have at least an ace?

Also, some of those hands can leave me crippled (AQ, AT, A9s, TT, 99), so bet/calling is really tough here.

In this particular hand, I wound up checking....button bet and BB called. A rather sticky situation that I could have (possibly) avoided by betting. I'm still not sure if bet/calling > bet/folding.

Thoughts?

Lmn55d · #7 11-25-2005, 08:46 PM

I don't think your outs will be counterfeited enough to bet/fold

#8 11-25-2005, 09:18 PM

Not that you'll be calling down automatically, but a portion of the time you'll be putting two bets in here anyways if you call down. If you feel inclined to do that you may as well bet your hand and if raised call and fold the river UI for the same amount of bets. If we could get away from the hand a bet is much better since BB will protect us from a bluff about 90% of the time.

wheelz · #9 11-25-2005, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think your outs will be counterfeited enough to bet/fold

[/ QUOTE ]

#10 11-25-2005, 06:38 PM

That was a good analysis of the hand.

A few questions for you and the forum.......

How often does a guy like that (32/21/1.25) 3-bet someone like me (23/18/2.5) with QJ and KJ?

Also, if he did happen to 3-bet those hands, considering his low aggression (1.25), how often would he bet/raise the turn behind me without an ace?

FWIW, I had a large sample of hands (~3000) on both opponents.