$55 bubble hand.

I've had 2000 chips and 4th has 100 and I've come 4th. But I am still happy with my move in that situation. I'm not trying to move up the ladder. I want to win, and if the big chip stack wants to steal my chips, and I have the right cards, I'm making my move for first before I am in the money.

I have a lot of first places, or out of the money, and maybe there is higher variance, but my ROI has improved since I implemented this strategy. When you win a hand like that, it really changes the game. People get scared because they know you will call. If I am in this position and I win that hand, I am usually 80%+ to take 1st.

I'm not going to lie, I play $22s, not $55s and perhaps that is why I am wrong here.

calling on bubble with mid PP is genius compared to the other crap that happens on the 55s.

I think people over estimate the average 55er...

MY BAD, didnt see the blinds were 100/200. ya, i would fold this as well...but i stand by my statement that we overestimate the skill of the average 55er [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a lot of first places, or out of the money, and maybe there is higher variance, but my ROI has improved since I implemented this strategy. When you win a hand like that, it really changes the game. People get scared because they know you will call. If I am in this position and I win that hand, I am usually 80%+ to take 1st.

[/ QUOTE ]

This whole paragraph is crap, but the last sentence especially is just laughable. Think about it for a bit and you'll understand why.

i agree you should play for first, NO DOUBT! but ignoring all of the stack sizes is a big mistake, IMO. if you truly had 2000 chips when the short stack was 100 and busted to the big stack, i think that is just plain silly.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is pushing with Ax, you are at worst a 54% favorite. But maybe he is pushing A6, A5, ...

He could hold 88,99 which is the worst scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think you greatly overestimate what he could be pushing here.

88, 99 is the worse scenario? Yes, an overpair is the worst scenario, but add TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA to this list. AA/KK is of course less likely because he'd probably try to keep someone in the pot, but you never know. I don't know about you, but I'd be playing QQ/JJ/TT in a manner that would look like I don't want action, because I don't, I want the blinds!

Also, you say if he is playing Ax you're at worst 54%. You're right, and I hate that result! 54% of the time your pretty much out of the tournament in fourth here.

I have a bubble to ITM of 75%, so I'm not taking chances when I'm likely a coinflip or dog like in this situation.

According to SNGPT, he needs to be pushing 75% of hands to make this a +0.5 $EV call. 75% of hands is 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T3o+,T2s+,95o+,93s+,86o+,84s+, 76o,75s+,65s. Umm, is he pushing this range?

dang he is good...so his itm distribution is 8 first for every 2 second/third he takes...

Anyone else wanna sign this guy up for coaching??

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
I've had 2000 chips and 4th has 100 and I've come 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Judging from your previous posts, you almost definitely played this tournament wrong.

I'm confused? Just because of pure odds of losing a hand I am ahead and losing the resulting tourny? Okay, maybe it is lower than that, I'm not sure. But I certainly do well from that position as I feel as though I play a big stack well.

That is not what I'm saying. I'm saying with over half the chips on the table I will tend to finish first a lot.

[citanul]

i'm gonna stop looking at this thread as every time i do a little part of me dies.