Bad Laydown?

[Rduke55]

I'm pretty new to Omaha and I definitely need some help with my game.
$10 Omaha 8/b Tournament on Absolute. 70 started down to about 35-40.
Average stack is 2400, I have 4300 and am in the BB (100) w/ KQJ8 (suits do not matter). Five limpers including the SB.
Flop is 883. I bet out 400. Three callers. Turn is 3. I bet out 400. Same three callers. River is a 5. Bet 400 (figured kind of a blocking bet). Next guy goes all in for 3300. Next guy calls all in for 1650. Next guy folds.
I think about it for a while and fold.
Thoughts?

[JoshuaMayes]

I would make that fold. Most of the time you will be getting none of the pot, because one of your opponents will have 8s full or 3s full and the other will have A2. You cannot even beat A8. Sometimes you will curse when you see both flip up A2, but you haven't risked that much of your stack, and you will still have an above average stack if you fold.

Why aren't you betting the full pot on the flop or the turn? If you want to take down the pot, you are not going to do it with small bets. Your hand is much too weak to be milking or value betting. You should either be betting big to try and win the pot or checking in hopes of getting a free card and filling up. I can't see a reason to let low-draws, the other 8, or overpairs stick around by making weak bets. Your play screams weakness/fear to me.

When you make that 400 bet on the river, anyone with a nut low + a pair should be jamming to try to push you out of the pot and 3/4 another nut low, because you have indicated how little you like your hand. If you had a boat, you would have been pushing hard on the flop and turn to force out the lows.

[Ironman]

I had written out a whole line of thought agreeing with your line of play...then I came back to it and asked myself a simple question.

"what beats me here?"

And the answer is...not much.

Top set is pretty darn good on this board.

A pair of fives wins, the case 8 and a 3 wins or a 3 and a 5 wins (this is the most likely).

Something got this guy really excited on the river. So he is either holding 3 5 or was dealt A 2 3 and is looking to drive out the non nut high hand...that's you.

I think this is a lot closer than I originally thought.

As I said in another post, if folding is wrong, it's not wrong by much. You don't need to win this hand. There will be other positions where you have a better advantage and better position.

Dave

[JoshuaMayes]

[ QUOTE ]
"what beats me here?"


A pair of fives wins, the case 8 and a 3 wins or a 3 and a 5 wins (this is the most likely).

Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

There are many hands I can see hero losing the high half to -- A235; A28x; A48x; A58x; 85xx; A345; A255; A33x; 83xx; A8xx, etc. Hero doesn't even have top kicker with his trips. Don't forget, he is also getting half the pot at most.

[Ironman]

good point about the kicker for his trips...I thought about that one later as well.

Dave

[GooperMC]

I prolly fold and curse. You have only committed about 1/4 of your stack and you are not going to be crippled if you fold so I don’t think this is the time to take a big chance for 1/2 the pot. However I think that you really put yourself in a bad position by your actions on previous streets.

Flop: Bet pot

Turn: Bet pot or check

River: Check. All you are doing by making that bet is building the pot for A2 (which you didn’t push out on the previous rounds of betting). By building the pot you are just making a larger bet from A2 that you are going to have to face.

I am fairly sure that nobody connected with that flop as well as you did (unless they have the low draw too) because they would be jamming to force out the lows. However your weak betting leaves A33, A235, A48, and some of the others Joshua mentioned still in the realm of possibility. Betting pot would force out a lot of these hands and it would force everyelse to define their hands.

When I was first playing PLO8 someone suggested to me that if you are going to bet, betting pot is always a good option. As a beginning I would suggest almost always betting pot when you are going to bet.

[Rduke55]

Thanks, good advice all around.
My betting strategies are horrendous in PLO8. I'm always torn between betting big to push people out and being a little girl about it so I don't get married to a big pot.

Here once I bet 400 into a 600 pot and got a bunch of callers I tightened up. The 400 was to see if anyone had another 8 or FH already.
Results, if anyone cares, were that the big pusher had the nut low and no high, the all in caller had the 2nd nut low and A for high (other than the pair of 8s on the board) which took the high half of the pot.

[gergery]

I would bet ~400 on the flop to get money in with what is likely the best hand and to see where I’m at. Based purely on cards dealt, you are behind around 25% of the time here, but probably less since many combinations of hands that beat you are not likely to be played.

I like 400 better than 600 pot bet for 2 reasons. 1) you can expect a raise if you’re beat here so you can fold, 2) you create a favorable pot to stack size for a turn bet on a favorable card. For example, let’s say you get 2 callers. Then pot is 1800 (600+3*400) and an average stack is then 1900 (2400-100-400). So then on the turn you can make a pot size bet that puts them all-in. If you’d bet 600 there and gotten your 3 callers, now the pot is 3000, and your opponents have 1800 left, meaning you are much more likely to get a call on a turn pot bet, and you don’t want that since someone will be very likely to get a low.

I would bet the pot on the turn and think not doing so is a big error. Anyone with A8 or 33 or even 83 may very well have raised on the flop to charge the lows, and since the 3 hit there are that many less ways you’re beat. And the lows are now significantly less likely to hit. Additionally, you can only win the size of the pot since that’s all your average opponents have left. So, 1) the math has swung significantly in your favor in terms of likelihood of being ahead, and 2) you have now much less future $$ you can win on later streets.

I check then fold/call the river depending on bets/opponents/etc. and fold in this situation. You’ve represented an 8 the whole way here, and there are many hands that beat you. I don’t like your minbets on either the turn or river.

--Greg

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
I like 400 better than 600 pot bet for 2 reasons. 1) you can expect a raise if you’re beat here so you can fold, 2) you create a favorable pot to stack size for a turn bet on a favorable card. For example, let’s say you get 2 callers. Then pot is 1800 (600+3*400) and an average stack is then 1900 (2400-100-400). So then on the turn you can make a pot size bet that puts them all-in. If you’d bet 600 there and gotten your 3 callers, now the pot is 3000, and your opponents have 1800 left, meaning you are much more likely to get a call on a turn pot bet, and you don’t want that since someone will be very likely to get a low.

[/ QUOTE ]
Very good point. I haven't played much PL lately so I wasn't thinking about that.