How low would you go...

[Bill Smith]

Hmm... time for a little math.

Against a random hand, or even slightly better than random hand, you're about 85% to double up with AA.

15% of the time, you take 3rd and get $250k.
85% of the time, you lock up 2nd and take 1st ~40% of the time. ($500k * .60 + $1M * .4) = $700k.

EV = $250k * .15 + $700k * .85 = $632.5k

If you fold AA, let's assume SB drops. You take 2nd 85% of the time and 1st about 15% of the time.

EV = $500k * .85 + $1M * .15 = $575k

Call with the AA.