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#1
11-07-2005, 02:47 PM
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Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
I’ve been analyzing this post by Scuba Chuck. In the very last paragraph he writes this:
[ QUOTE ] But back to the bigstack (‘cos we’re discussing proper bubble play). As you can see, in theory, bigstack doesn’t want to win this hand against shorty, as he transfers 21.6% of $EV to the other two stacks. (You can see that shorty has 24.4% of equity if he wins, but if big stack wins, he only gains 2.8% of equity) So in theory, again, bigstack really does not want to have a good hand here. [/ QUOTE ] On to the hand: Preflop, the $EV of each stack is: Seat 2: axbear ( $770 ) 20.9% Seat 3: Hero ( $6420 ) 42.2% Seat 9: galziegrl ( $2660 ) 32.6% Seat 10: rrichone ( $150 ) 4.3% Assume that shorty has top 50% of hands, perhaps 30% and 2d stack has any 2. If I fold, and shorty wins against 2d stack, shorty has 450 chips. Then assume I raise on the next hand, with a worse hand, and try and funnel chips to shorty, keeping the bubble alive to increase my $EV. Also, if I fold and 2d stack wins the transfer of $EV is fairly irrelevant. Thoughts? ***** Hand History for Game 2322140396 ***** NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13712624 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) Table Table 12197 (Real Money) Seat 2 is the button Total number of players : 4 Seat 2: axbear ( $770 ) Seat 3: Hero ( $6420 ) Seat 9: galziegrl ( $2660 ) Seat 10: rrichone ( $150 ) Trny:13712624 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero [ 6c 6d ] 
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#2
11-07-2005, 03:28 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post.
Losing to shorty to keep the bubble alive has been discussed before. I'm not a big fan of the idea cause I think you'll get spite calls, but YMMV.
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#3
11-07-2005, 03:32 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
if u are willing to be aggressive, then keeping shorty alive can be really good...the midstacks will fold to u all day long cause they want itm, even if they are mad at u for folding...half the time they'll think u are just a stupid donk so won't spite call u; the other half they'll wanna spite call u but won't wanna lose out on the cash, so won't
but if u purposefully keep shorty alive on the bubble, u better be aggressive and get that ev back (and then some) by bullying those mid stacks it also works best when shorty is the seat before u, so you can bully the midstacks 50% of the hands without worrying that shorty acting after u may call
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#4
11-07-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
[ QUOTE ]
Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with your point. Here the blinds are worth > 10% $EV and will go up in value on the next level.
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#5
11-07-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with your point. Here the blinds are worth > 10% $EV and will go up in value on the next level. [/ QUOTE ] Scuba Chuck was simply misunderstanding EV, and he was wrong, and you are wrong if you agree with him. If your point is that it's worth giving up some EV now for the prospect of EV later, that's open for debate, as this thread, and many others, show.
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#6
11-07-2005, 04:34 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
Your point on the Scuba post was that by giving up 2% EV or any EV was wrong. My point is that stealing the blinds from 2d or even 3d stack by keeping shorty in the game is worth more than 10% EV. Also, if you read his words in that paragraph, he starts out by saying "in theory".
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#7
11-07-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
[ QUOTE ]
Your point on the Scuba post was that by giving up 2% EV or any EV was wrong. My point is that stealing the blinds from 2d or even 3d stack by keeping shorty in the game is worth more than 10% EV. Also, if you read his words in that paragraph, he starts out by saying "in theory". [/ QUOTE ] In theory, he is wrong. He said nothing about second-order effects. He claimed that you should pass up a clear benefit since other players also benefit. This is simply, obviously, 100% theoretically wrong. Meanwhile, I understand your point very well. I'm not even really arguing with you about your point. It's open for debate, and others have debated it, and I don't feel like debating it. I'm done.
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#8
11-10-2005, 03:00 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
[ QUOTE ]
Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post. [/ QUOTE ] LOL. You picked out one point in my post, and so the rest of it is wrong. Great job.
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#9
11-10-2005, 03:03 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Scuba Chuck's analysis was wrong, as I pointed out in his post. [/ QUOTE ] LOL. You picked out one point in my post, and so the rest of it is wrong. Great job. [/ QUOTE ] OP quoted one paragraph. I was referring to that paragraph, which is completely obvious if you bothered to read this post. Lighten up.
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#10
11-10-2005, 03:12 PM
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Re: Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] As you can see, in theory, bigstack doesn’t want to win this hand against shorty, as he transfers 21.6% of $EV to the other two stacks. (You can see that shorty has 24.4% of equity if he wins, but if big stack wins, he only gains 2.8% of equity) So in theory, again, bigstack really does not want to have a good hand here. [/ QUOTE ] Wrong. Big stack wants to win because he gains equity, period. The other two stacks are also happy that big stack wins, but that's irrelevant. [/ QUOTE ] As I said in my original post, this part is just theory. Why do you think it is flat out wrong?
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