Confused with Aces and Queens, 2 hands PP .5/1

#1 11-27-2005, 05:02 PM

Donk bets always confuse me. Mp2 in this hand is 17/3/1.8. The only kind of hand i can put villian on here is a a possible set. Should i be raising this turn, and folding to a 3 bet?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls,2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls,2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises,Hero 3-bets, CO folds, BB calls $0.75 (All-In), UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

In this hand, button is 59/7/.6. does his low AF show me has a 9, or did he make top pair with a hand KQ?
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises,1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](4 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO folds, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB
Thx in advance

#2 11-27-2005, 06:21 PM

Hand 1 I play the same. I'm a little bit concerned about the rock waking up on such a ragged flop.

Hand 2 I would 3-bet the turn and call down if he caps or lead the river if he calls. It's much more likely he has a Q than a 9 IMO.

detruncate · #3 11-28-2005, 08:05 AM

Hi acousticaces. Welcome to the forum.

Hand 1 I call down when bet into on the turn. I don't love our chances of being ahead when he donks but the pot is large enough that I think we're justified seeing a showdown with our overpair. Sometimes we improve and win -- that could be as little as counterfeiting his top 2. It's also not inconceivable that we win UI.

Hand 2 I call down too. .6 isn't super passive with a 59% VPIP if he's seeing a lot of showdowns. It's entirely possible that he thinks a Q or 4 is good or is semibluffing a flush draw or just taking a shot. If we know he doesn't raise without a very strong hand I can lay down, but I want more than tentative numbers. This hand will hopefully help me (in the context of his play as a whole) decide what to do next time he raises the turn on me, which is not unimportant info given the relatively likelihood of the situation arising given his high VPIP and your presumed reasonable aggression. However, I think it's close enough that a turn fold wouldn't be bad.

AlmightyJay · #4 11-28-2005, 08:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Donk bets always confuse me. Mp2 in this hand is 17/3/1.8. The only kind of hand i can put villian on here is a a possible set. Should i be raising this turn, and folding to a 3 bet?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls,2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls,2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](5 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises,Hero 3-bets, CO folds, BB calls $0.75 (All-In), UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players, 1 all-in)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

In this hand, button is 59/7/.6. does his low AF show me has a 9, or did he make top pair with a hand KQ?
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises,1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](4 players)
Hero bets, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO folds, Button raises, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB
Thx in advance

[/ QUOTE ]

In hand 1, have you been betting the flop with UI overcards and then folding on the turn? If so, that could explain this bet. I can't see this villian playing 65s from his position, or 33 or 44. 77 and 88 are possibilities, as well as 87s, but I think it's more likely he has a hand like 99 or TT. I would raise his turn bet and call down if he 3-bets; if he calls the turn raise and checks the river, I'm probably checking behind.

In hand 2, a 9 is certainly a possibility, but so is a Q. I think I play it the same way you did.

#5 11-28-2005, 08:29 AM

i roughly agree with whats been said

has anyone considered the extent to which the river 3 changes the first hand? 87s is very likely from MP2 here and we now have queens up

#6 11-28-2005, 11:12 AM

Hand 1: Over how many hands is MP2's stats? If it's over a relatively small number of hands, it's somewhat difficult to narrow his hand range. If his PFR is really around 3, then he could easily have limped with TT-77. It's also possible that he has A8s-A7s (not spades if A8s) or 87s (also not spades), although it's difficult to determine which of these hands MP2 would limp from that position without knowing how accurate 17/3 is to his true range. As for the turn donk, I think there are two likely possibilities...

a)If you've been trying to make a lot of free card plays with overs, I can see MP2 raising the flop with A8-A7 in attempt to thin the field, then calling the 3bet, and donking a blank turn. When you just call MP2's turn bet, he's probably thinking that you have two overcards, no pocket pair. Hence, when another low card falls on the river, he assumes you haven't improved and bets out once again. A similar line of reasoning would also follow if he had TT or 99, or...

b)He's flopped two pair with 87 or hit a set. He raises on the flop because the pot is already big. But if this is the case, why would he just call the 3bet? If he had two pair or a set, I would think that he would either cap the flop or check-raise the turn after calling the 3bet. That's why I think two pair or a set is less likely, although possible if MP2 is the type of player who knows what hands he's supposed to play preflop but has no idea how to play postflop. There are a lot of players like that, so I certainly don't dismiss the idea.

With all that said, I think QQ is ahead more often than not. I would raise the turn. If he calls and checks on the river, bet again. If he reraises on the turn, I probably call down. Although I would be very worried at that point, I think QQ is good enough times to call down in a fairly large pot.

Hand 2: An AF of .6 isn't especially low considering his high VPIP, although it's still passive. Without seeing how villain has played other hands, it's hard to say exactly what I would do after the turn raise. Without a read, I would probably reraise. If he calls, I bet the river. If he caps, I reevaluate, but I'd find it hard to fold against a donk who plays such a wide range of hands.

I think the way you played the turn and river is a decent alternative, as it induces villain to bet with a worse hand; however, I'm fairly confident he's paying you off against the aggressive play even if he's beat. He could easily have Qx or any pocket pair. Although his AF doesn't suggest aggression, players with 59% VPIP can play hands very strangely--strangely enough for me not to fold AA with a decent sized pot.

#7 11-28-2005, 11:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i roughly agree with whats been said

has anyone considered the extent to which the river 3 changes the first hand? 87s is very likely from MP2 here and we now have queens up

[/ QUOTE ]

The river 3 doesn't change the first hand unless MP2 has 87. Otherwise, you're either already ahead of MP2's pair or behind MP2's set and the river 3 pairing on the board doesn't affect the outcome. So it is possible that MP2 has 87s, but against every other hand in his range the river 3 is meaningless.

If the board were something like JT93 and another 3 came on the river, it would be much more likely that you counterfeited villain's two pair, as villain could limp with JTs, T9s, or J9s, which is a much wider range of possible two pairs than in the OP. That would also open a new can of worms as far as the play of this hand, but I think you can see my point.