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  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 01:17 PM
darker_days darker_days is offline
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Default you ever get that feeling...

villian in this hand is new to the table, seems a bit laggy (only hands showdown are a2s raised utg and a4o utg +1) but seems to play pretty well postflop. BB is a 40/4/.4 calling station and sb is a slightly more aggresive version of him.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.00 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

flame away [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #2  
Old 12-29-2005, 01:41 PM
Redeye Redeye is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

Take the free card on the flop and fold the turn unimproved. This is a massive amount of chip spewing even if it happened to work this time.
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  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 02:22 PM
Dave G. Dave G. is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

Betting A9o UI into 3 other players, especially on a flop like this, is throwing money away, particularly when you know they are predisposed to calling a lot. Check behind and hope for an A or 3.

Your turn raise is terrible. UTG just used you to checkraise the whole field on the flop. He is not trying to protect his hand; he is building a monster pot. If someone checkraises the whole field, they have either a big hand or a big draw (or are a complete donk).

You have neither: you have a very poor hand with a weak one card draw to the idiot end of a straight with a two flush on the board. It is highly unlikely that A high is best against 3 other players. Your A outs are probably worth at most 0.5 outs, since the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could complete a flush and an A isn't guaranteed to give you the best hand. Even your 3 outs are worth only about 2 outs, again since the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] could make a flush and a 3 may not give you the winning hand. There are also some reverse implied odds to consider when the 3 makes you a second best hand. Overall your hand is worth no more than 2 outs. Against 3 other players, your turn bluffraise will not give you enough folding equity to cover your significant pot equity deficit.

If you make this kind of play regularly, you are going to lose a lot of money. Save your semibluff raises for HU situations where you suspect your opponent has a weak hand and your folding equity may be significant; it's not here.
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  #4  
Old 12-29-2005, 02:26 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

[ QUOTE ]
you ever get that feeling... that urge... to burn money?

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #5  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:01 PM
gehrig gehrig is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

checking the flop is weak. there's no hand that you want to have see a turn card, so give people a chance to fold

once that guy c/r'es you after two people have already called you cant really fight back unless u hit
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  #6  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:14 PM
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

[ QUOTE ]
Take the free card on the flop and fold the turn unimproved. This is a massive amount of chip spewing even if it happened to work this time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is bad flop advice IMHO. You have two overcards and a gutshot that's good most of the time if you hit it. That's as many as 10 outs, although realistically with the 2-flush it's closer to 6. That being said, you're in position and it's been checked to you. You need to give opponents the chance to fold, so bet this. (And if we don't feel like betting A9o with a gutshot and two overs, we shouldn't be raising with it after a fishy UTG limps. We probably shouldn't do this anyway, but I'm trusting the OP thought he was way ahead of UTG's range.)

The turn raise is awful, though. You're getting 7:1 on a gutshot + one over that might/might not be good. Would UTG c/r the flop on total air? Does he give up on rivers if UI? I'd be tempted to call the turn and fold if UTG follows through with a river (but he may not, and our hand might be good as is.)
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  #7  
Old 12-29-2005, 03:52 PM
Dave G. Dave G. is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

[ QUOTE ]

This is bad flop advice IMHO. You have two overcards and a gutshot that's good most of the time if you hit it. That's as many as 10 outs, although realistically with the 2-flush it's closer to 6. That being said, you're in position and it's been checked to you. You need to give opponents the chance to fold, so bet this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

Lets assign each player with a %40 chance of folding on the flop to your very suspicious bet. In reality, this is probably too generous, particularly as the OP described a couple of them as calling station types, but for arguments sake we'll use it.

In such a case, your flop bet only has a %6.4 chance of taking down the pot right there.

There are 8 SB in the pot, and it costs you 1 SB to make this play. Your folding equity on the flop is .064 * 8 = .512 SB. That is, you can expect to gain .512 SB for this bet if everyone folding is your only way of winning. So you are spending 1 SB to try and win .512 SB. This is clearly a losing proposition. And remember, these folding percentages are extremely generous - in reality, your folding equity will be much lower. Also, those times that you are checkraised and call it, you lose an additional SB, which even further lowers your equity. We can round it down slightly and say you have .5 SB of folding equity.

In order to bet this hand profitably, we need another source of equity - that is, we need more pot equity to bet this flop. On the flop, I'd give 1.5 outs for the aces, 1.5 outs for the 9s, and 1.5 outs for the 3s, giving us roughly 4.5 outs (all are discounted for the possibility of river redraws and reverse implied odds). Using an equity estimate, we have roughly 4 * 4.5 = 18% pot equity on the flop. .18 * 8 SB = 1.44 SB. Total pot equity = 1.44 + 0.5 = 1.94 SB. Expressed as a percentage of the pot, 1.94 / 8 = 24.25% total equity.

Against 3 players, we are contributing 25% of the pot. Thus, we have a pot equity deficit. A bet here is very marginal at best. On the one hand, we may have more outs than I've estimated, but on the other hand, we may have much less folding equity too. We can also have much fewer outs than I've estimated.

Betting is therefore a breakeven proposition at best, and is probably slightly losing as long as noone checkraises us, but when someone checkraises us, betting becomes a huge loser, especially if you call it and don't improve, or are forced to fold a live hand that would have improved to the best hand on the turn.

Thus, to me, betting is clearly an inferior play to checking behind.
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  #8  
Old 12-29-2005, 04:50 PM
darker_days darker_days is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

i think most of this is why i should have explained more about people at the table before pressing the damn post button, lol. apologies to anyone that may have posted already without this info:-

both sb and bb were the type of calling stations to call everything on the frop, and then drop on the turn. while villian in this hand is a lag, he is a thinking lag, so in the heat of the moment i read him as more likely having a big draw (FD or OESD - neither of which hit the turn) then a made hand. while the blinds were the type to drop on the flop, i thought i'd give them a helping hand incase they flopped a pair of 2's. I had also been running over sb and BB, so felt i'd have more folding equity as they'd be more inclined to believe i have something

This was going to be a fold to a 3-bet (obvoiusly, lol). And its not a regular thing for me either, and i think given the general air of most of these responses its gunna have to be scrapped, heh
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  #9  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:00 PM
darker_days darker_days is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

[ QUOTE ]

The turn raise is awful, though. You're getting 7:1 on a gutshot + one over that might/might not be good. Would UTG c/r the flop on total air? Does he give up on rivers if UI? I'd be tempted to call the turn and fold if UTG follows through with a river (but he may not, and our hand might be good as is.)

[/ QUOTE ]

why are we assuming we are behind utg? think about yourself in his position:- you have a pfr likely to make a continuation bet to your left and two calling stations to your right. from looking at it from where he was i saw him as more likely to have a FD then a made hand. while he was a lag he did seem to have a pretty good grasp on things postflop

calling the turn didnt feel like an option, as i felt that i had more chance folding out SB and BB to clean up any possible outs if behind, and fold out and small pairs (2's etc) when faced with two large bets.
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  #10  
Old 12-29-2005, 05:02 PM
darker_days darker_days is offline
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Default Re: you ever get that feeling...

[ QUOTE ]
Thus, to me, betting is clearly an inferior play to checking behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think your probably right on this one, i need to learn where to do this more often.
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