River aggression check-up

[toss]

I think you're giving villain too much credit. He'll checkraise this flop with a hand like AJo, KJo much more than he'll have a ten IMO. Or even have 33 lol.

[imported_leader]

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I think you're giving villain too much credit. He'll checkraise this flop with a hand like AJo, KJo much more than he'll have a ten IMO. Or even have 33 lol.

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By not capping? Maybe.

[Redeye]

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I think you're letting him off cheap be raising the flop or turn so he can fold. It looks like the type that will just run with his bluff. Let him. He could easily be drawing to 0-3 outs on the turn.

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I would be interested in someone arguing the merits of raising the river as opposed to the turn. I like to mix it up and wait until the turn at times, but I'm not sure this is a good time for that play.

The read was that villian was LAGgy preflop, but more reasonable postflop, although he could be overagressive at times. To me, this means he probably overplays draws and pairs. I think the majority of the time villian has a PP or a flush draw, and a small % of the time has a T. Its a lot less likely he has a T and is c/ring you on this flop.

The reason I don't like waiting until the river is two things can occur. 1) A further scare card for villian could come out to stop villian from betting and we may not get a raise in on the river and lose value. (A heart, an Ace or King). 2) A lot of cards could fall on the river that won't allow us to rasie: a heart or an ace.

Now, we said villian is aggressive, but we don't know if he will value bet in the face of any river card and we risk losing out on a bet.

If villian has a PP, he'll call down our turn raise. People just won't fold PPs here (or ever for that matter). If he has a heart draw, we lose out on a river raise as he won't call it even if he bets, and he might just check fold.

I personally feel like the flop action coupled with the river 3-bet makes a T more than 50% likely. But without a good read this is like the Sunday horoscopes: 50-cent wisdom.

[callydrias]

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I would be interested in someone arguing the merits of raising the river as opposed to the turn. I like to mix it up and wait until the turn at times, but I'm not sure this is a good time for that play.

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The only reason I don't pop the turn here is because I thought I was actually behind on the turn and when the river T comes, the probability of Villain holding the case T just dropped by 50%. Then, maybe, I feel safe raising the river.

However, I don't think I'm behind on the turn.

Just waiting until the river to raise is called slowplaying. You only do that with monster hands, when the pot is small, and where your opponents are likely drawing to 2nd best hands. We don't qualify here.

I like the idea of raising the turn to extract value from heart draws, but I'll let you in on a secret. I don't like my line. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

When I played I thought the chances were good he had a T on the flop, but with the turn possibly hitting him*, I felt I should see a showdown against him. When the 3rd T hit on the river, I figured chances were small enough that he had the case T that a raise was worthwhile to get value from his AJ-QJ or PP. His 3-bet told me he had it, but I called anyway just in case he thought I was bluffing that T. He turned over KT and MHING.

*When the J hits, it widens the range of his possible holdings that he would keep betting but that I still beat, meaning I feel I can continue because my equity against his range of hands has probably improved.

[Redeye]

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The only reason I don't pop the turn here is because I thought I was actually behind on the turn and when the river T comes, the probability of Villain holding the case T just dropped by 50%. Then, maybe, I feel safe raising the river.

However, I don't think I'm behind on the turn.

Just waiting until the river to raise is called slowplaying. You only do that with monster hands, when the pot is small, and where your opponents are likely drawing to 2nd best hands. We don't qualify here.

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The fact that hero got c/red makes it enormously less liklely that villian has a T. A loose player is raising preflop, he has a real wide range here. When he c/res the flop, if he's not a total dolt, narrows his range to pairs, flush draws, and possibly some big aces. I would bet he will fold none of these on to a turn raise. Its possible he has AA,KK, or JJ, but he'll have XXs, 22-99 a lot higher % of the time. I would bet we are behind the turn less than 20% of the time.

I should add that I don't like my line because it fails to get value from flush draws. I narrowed my read in that hand too much and as such played it incorrectly from a theoretical standpoint. I think a better line would have been raising the turn and folding to a 3-bet. If he just called the turn, the river would depend on the card that fell and what he did. That line doesn't get me to showdown as cheaply, but I think it is more profitable in the long run.