Stars 10$ rebuy 20k guarenteed - Call or fold here?

[remen]

This hand is from the Stars nightly 20k guarenteed 10$ rebuy. Top 81 get paid, about 60 people left at this point. I had an above average stack, but needed a lot more to make the final table (which is my goal). I wasn't playing all that aggressively for being one of the big stacks at the table and was mostly showing down good hands. I won most of my chips by doubling up twice in a row with aces.

My reads on the players: MP3 has been fairly aggresive and pushing a lot as a shortstack trying to double up. The CO has been playing pretty loose as well.

Here is the hand:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (9 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button (t23114)
SB (t14490)
BB (t216900)
UTG (t69927)
<font color="C00000">Hero (t109298)</font>
MP1 (t33489)
MP2 (t15530)
<font color="C00000">MP3 (t36593)</font>
<font color="C00000">CO (t28364)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t10800</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises to t36393</font>, CO calls t28164 (All-In), Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, Hero ???.

Do you make this call here? I will post the results and my logic behind my actions a bit later.

[Chief911]

You're surely beat, but you also probably have to make this call with 99. You could probably make an argument for making this call with any two cards, which you obviously have better than. You pay 23k for a pot of around 90k.

Nick

[deuces09]

If I'm in that scenario, I make a crying call. MP player might have you beat, and short-stack could have anything. If they both have big broadway connectors or an underpair then you're sitting pretty

[davidross]

I wish I knew how to use those odds calculators. I do know you need to put up another 26K to win 100K so lets say you're getting 4-1. WOuldn't it be sweet if they both had AK? However, I'm guessing if there is a bigger pair out there, you are more than a 4-1 dog, and if there are 3 or 4 overcards, it's probably close. I suspect I would fold, but I bet a call is correct if we worked it out mathematically.

[gergery]

I call.

You need to put in 17.3k to win 73k vs. both MP3 and CO for the main pot and put in 8k to play heads up vs. MP3 for 8k in the side pot.

For the 17.3k you are getting 4.3 to 1 odds, which makes calling correct if you have &gt;18% pot equity. Heads up vs. MP3 for 8k you are correct to call if he has anything but AA-JJ. And loose players pushing over one bigstack raiser could have 55+/AT+ I’d think.

Even vs. both of them, you are effectively risking 25k to win 81k, which is 3.2 to 1 odds, so you only need 23% pot equity.

However, 99’s equity vs. a few different hands below ranges from ~16% at worst to ~ 45% at best. Net, when you’re losing EV here, its not by much. Very often it’s close to neutral EV. But when you’re ahead, you’re EV is quite good.

--Greg

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9c 9h 207926 15.17 1159411 84.58 3417 0.25 0.153
Ad Ah 914680 66.73 452657 33.02 3417 0.25 0.668
Ts Td 244731 17.85 1122606 81.90 3417 0.25 0.179

9c 9h 226254 16.51
Kc Ah 497196 36.27
Ts Td 643466 46.94

9c 9h 619823 45.22
Kc Ah 449238 32.77
Qs Ad 279377 20.38

9c 9h 605668 44.19
Kd Ah 516483 37.68
8s 8d 245019 17.87

[remen]

Results:

remen: calls 25593
*** FLOP *** [5s 8s Js]
*** TURN *** [5s 8s Js] [Jc]
*** RIVER *** [5s 8s Js Jc] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
remen: shows [9h 9c] (two pair, Jacks and Nines)
Rockabee: shows [Qd Qs] (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
Rockabee collected 16458 from side pot
AKULA1: shows [Kd Ad] (a pair of Jacks)
Rockabee collected 92292 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 108750 Main pot 92292. Side pot 16458. | Rake 0
Board [5s 8s Js Jc 7d]
Seat 1: macdafish (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: PhoenixDee (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Judoka (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: DefConOne folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: remen showed [9h 9c] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Nines
Seat 6: idc219 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: harttert311 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Rockabee showed [Qd Qs] and won (108750) with two pair, Queens and Jacks
Seat 9: AKULA1 showed [Kd Ad] and lost with a pair of Jacks

I figured I was very likely behind an overpair, but almost had the odds to call for set value anyway. I also thought folding would be wrong because they would both have overcards or underpair/overcards often enough to make calling +EV. I also took into consideration the fact that I would be able to gain more chips after this hand if I won it by being able to bully the rest of the table. Another thing I thought about is folding here would leave me with a medium stack while calling and losing would still leave me with a medium sized stack. At the time I wasn't 100% sure if my action was correct, but after reading your replies I feel much better about the call.

[KKsuited]

I would probably fold in that spot, but see my post about not being able to play a big stack. I don't know the complicated odds the other poster pointed out, but looking at a a more simple approach (although probably not as correct), here's how I see it.

If one player has an over pair and the other has 2 overs, you're 5-1. The pot is not laying you 5-1, so fold. That's simple man odds though, so that could be incorrect.

[AlwaysWrong]

I'm curious about what people think of the initial raise, as that's what gets you to this spot in the first place. With that raise, you're looking at having to make a big call against quite a few people at the table as an underdog. If you had been last to act with 99 and there were two people all-in ahead of you, would you have called without anything already invested in the pot? Certainly not. Is there anything you can do to protect yourself from being pot-committed in these situations? Is limping with the 99 or even just folding it an option?

[remen]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably fold in that spot, but see my post about not being able to play a big stack. I don't know the complicated odds the other poster pointed out, but looking at a a more simple approach (although probably not as correct), here's how I see it.

If one player has an over pair and the other has 2 overs, you're 5-1. The pot is not laying you 5-1, so fold. That's simple man odds though, so that could be incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your approach and conclusion are correct only if you KNOW for a fact that one of the players has an overpair. What makes this situation more complicated is you could be up against an underpair/overcards, overcards/overcards, or possibly (but not at all likely) two underpairs.

What Gergery was doing was analayzing what my EV was against different ranges of hands. If I was up against an overpair, calling isn't wrong by much, but if I am up against overcards/overcards or underpair/overcards I am getting a great price on my money for the call (3.2:1 with about a 45% chance of winning).

[stephensolo]

yeah, i like to limp with low or mid pairs in this position. either that, or go all-in, since a big raise just like the one you had from mp3 before the flop would get me out, considering of course this is not a loose player making the raise.