"A Pair of Fours" Again

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Brad:

Given the size of the pot, you only need to get check raised bluffed every now and then, assuming you fold to the raise, for that to be a big problem. So you need to be pretty sure that you will absolutely not be checked raised bluffed.

Best wishes,
Mason

[mike l.]

"Now from these posts, it seems like the flop and the turn are pretty much agreed upon, but the river check is in question."

it's fascinating isnt it? we're all about the river around here. it's a tricky street, but david downplays it as simple. so why are we all constantly going on about river value bets and checkraise bluffs, not just on this hand, but all the time? any thoughts mason? (i think it has something to do with a certain changing nature/texture of hold em games in the past 5 years).

[Coilean]

Heh, I sure did put in some hours at that 1-4-8-8 game. It's hard to believe I put up with all those beats now that I can earn twice as much in less than half the hours, and without playing so damn tight either. But you gotta start somewhere, I guess. And don't knock the Omaha, all it takes to pretty handily beat most O8 games is good preflop hand selection and the "only draw to the nuts" postflop strategy. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[SoBeDude]

We all know holdem poker has changed much over the years.
Players have become more sophisticated as the body of knowlegde continues to grow and become refined.

This is caused by the better texts available, and of course, sites like this.

I find it fascinating that these changes are underscored by how the conversation on this one hand has evolved over time.

-Scott

[ACPlayer]

While there are good reasons to think you are ahead there are 2 reasons why very thin value bets may not be a good idea in some games.

1. If you are known to be a very thin value bettor then you are more likely to be called if you bet a busted draw on the river by observant players.

2. If you are known to be a very thin value bettor who can also fold then you are more likely to be bluff raised by a tough player. This is something I do with fair success in Stud not so much in hold em.

These are both secondary issues but may shade your decision to not value bet 44 in this situation.

[Rushmore]

I honestly think it comes from a generally greater overall confidence in skilled players' preflop, flop, and turn play.

In other words, many 2+2 types have gained so much confidence in their play on these streets (either justifiably or not), that the value bet on the river is now reasonably recognized as a rich source for the betterment of one's hourly win rate.

It used to be "become a consistent, winning player."

Now it's "maximize your win rate."

This is a good and healthy evolution.

Great thread.

[Rushmore]

Maybe this is purely semantics, but...

...isn't this what "value bet" means, having considered all of these factors, and making an informed, properly-considered decision as to whether or not the "value" is there? If you have already revealed yourself as a player who will bluff at the river with a busted draw, doesn't this obviously effect your "value bets?"

Obviously, all of these factors are important. I just wondered if they are considered somehow "outside" of the standard considerations as regards value betting.

[anatta]

Its also in Roy Cooke's "A Play of Hands" - "Forty-Four: The RGP Discussion that Won't Die". According to Roy's recount of the massive RGP thread, Daniel Negreanu really hated the flop call. Huck Seed and John Hennigan "found criticism" in the call as well, but Roy, Abdul, Cissy, and Sklansky either liked the call or thought it was close enough to EV neutral that it didn't matter much.

[brad]

yeah about the check raise bluff but it just seems to me the chance of folding out Fives or Sixes much bigger than getting check raise bluffed but maybe in bellagio 30/60 players check raise bluff i dont know.

[brad]

change positions and have single opponent acting after you on the river and i think its a clear check as many opponents will think to bluff raise and do it.

but it just seems they dont check raise do it. probably just me and my limited locale experience.