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  #21  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:44 PM
GrunchCan GrunchCan is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

Well, I think I do disagree. I think AA and AK might fold to a 3bet, not not normally. Putting anumber on it, I'd say AA and AK fold 25% of the time.

Now, who's right? That's the question...
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  #22  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:47 PM
Isura Isura is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

[ QUOTE ]

Who agrees or disagrees with my range & my line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Although there are more combinations of AA/AK vs KK/QQ, doesn't the action in the hand indicate that KK/QQ is more likely?
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  #23  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:51 PM
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

I think you can throw out the combos for AK. This really doesn't smell like it.
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  #24  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:54 PM
GrunchCan GrunchCan is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

Sure, maybe. But can you quantify that at all?

For example, let's atart with the assumption the the opponent flopped a set of QQ. He open-checked both the flop and the turn. Obviously he doesn't want to "lose customers."

NMow let's give that same guy AA and flop him an overpair. Does he still not want to lose customers? What if we give him AK and flop TPTK?

Of the later 2 cases (AA and AK), I think it's less likely that AK will be afraid of losing custommers, but it's still quite possible. How possible? 50%? Less/more?

Whatever value you come up with, you can simply multiply that by the 16 ways he can have AK, and you can use that adjusted value to compute the EV of your varoius lines.
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  #25  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:03 PM
unlucky513 unlucky513 is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

villain checking flop AND turn = me 3 betting on the turn
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  #26  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:03 PM
GrunchCan GrunchCan is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

[ QUOTE ]
villain checking flop AND turn = me 3 betting on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?
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  #27  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:05 PM
swolfe swolfe is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

this isn't the board that you want when you call the PF reraise. i'd probably check behind the turn and see what happens on the river. value bet, if checked to. call if bet at.

you don't have to play monster pots with every set you hit when it's probable that you're behind. the check on the flop after the reraise is almost always top set. AA and AK bet this flop 100% of the time.
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  #28  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:06 PM
Fallen Hero Fallen Hero is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

[ QUOTE ]
villain checking flop AND turn = me 3 betting on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

people love to slowplay, specially on a pot that was reraised pf
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  #29  
Old 12-28-2005, 01:49 PM
cbloom cbloom is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

Hero is on the button, so BB may suspect a steal, though unlikely given the read on him being tight preflop.

On the turn there are two flush draws on the board, if he had a set would he really check and min-raise, risking giving such a cheap draw at it !? Maybe.
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  #30  
Old 12-28-2005, 02:25 PM
wdeadwyler wdeadwyler is offline
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Default Re: tough 55 hand

Villain's line really looks like he backed into a flush draw on the turn, maybe with a gutshot or a pair too. I wouldnt really worry about KK here, as its very unlikely, but QQ is a possibility. Checking a set here twice is so bad, but I suppose villain could do it. I still hate your river fold. You think you arent good here over 50% of the time.
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