Could you fold this ? (2nd edition)

[Ghazban]

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...he'll still hit an overset ~20% of the time on the turn or river...

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Where do you get that figure from? 2 outs twice is definitely not 20%

[schwza]

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% chance of flopping a set without him flopping a set ~ 10%.
% chance of him flopping set over set ~ 1.5%


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1.5% is too high. should be 1/8.5 * (1/8.5 * 2/3), which is just under 1%. [the 2/3 is there b/c you're taking one of the flop cards for your set so he only has 2 to use]. this also makes your set-but-not-set-over-set number too low.

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On the 10% of the times you do hit the flop and get him all in on the flop, he'll still hit an overset ~20% of the time on the turn or river...so your average take here is $51.


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as ghazban said, this should be more like 4%. we're assuming villain does not flop a set, so he has 2 outs twice.

[Beavis68]

20%? More like 12%

You are also ignoring the fact that you could that there are other situations that could arise post flop to give you the pot, but interesting analysis.

[Tilt]

Whoops my mistake - don't know what I was thinking. About 8% right? It doesnt change the outcome much - adds about 50 cents of EV to the call.

But unless I am really screwing ths up I dont see how you can call 4XBB raises with small pp's believeing you are against bigger pp's profitably unless the stacks are larger AND you assume the opponents can be drawn to the felt every time you hit your set. That latter assumption I think is questionable (for instance KK isnt always calling your push if there is an A on the board).

[Ghazban]

The main thing you want to do with a small pair is flop a set and bust somebody with a large single pair (or two pair). Whether or not they have AK and flop a pair or if they have AA and don't need help isn't all that important. If you miss the flop with 33 and your opponent bets, you probably aren't going to call despite possibly having the best hand (if he's just following through on missed overcards). Of course you aren't ALWAYS going to get all-in when you do hit a set but you don't need to-- you only need to make enough on those instances to cover the (many) times when you miss.

Given that players at low stakes almost always will go to the felt with an overpair, calling a 4x raise when both you and the raiser have a goodish amount behind is definitely +EV even if you are 100% certain he has a bigger pair.

Regarding your example where the original raiser has KK and an ace flops, you probably don't even need a set to win this pot. You can represent the ace yourself and many players will lay down the kings (and many others will continue in denial all the way to the river-- gotta know who's who on this one [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

[Raiser]

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If you have 33 and someone raises PF you are hoping they have a big overpair. That is the perfect situation for a baby pair at these tables and is where you will make a lot of your money.

Hero just got unlucky here and should never worry about set over set at Party unless the stacks get deep.

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Am I missing something here? It seems to me that the opponents stack is not large enought to make this worthwhile.

% chance of flopping a set without him flopping a set ~ 10%.
% chance of him flopping set over set ~ 1.5%

So you call $4 hoping to stack him. What happens?

88.5% you lose $4 at least, maybe more if you call on the turn.
1.5% you lose $68 (his stack)
On the 10% of the times you do hit the flop and get him all in on the flop, he'll still hit an overset ~20% of the time on the turn or river...so your average take here is $51.

Expected results from calling = $.5
EV of call = .5 - 4 = -3.5

This doesnt account for straights, flushes, etc, but I think its pretty clearly a bad call preflop. The opponents stack needs to be almost twice as large for this to be +EV. So as the stacks get larger thats when you worry less about a set over set.

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OK, here are my calculations.

You don't flop a set 88.2% of the time. In those cases you lose $4.

Of the times you do flop a set (11.8% of the time) you will be oversetted by the river 16.5% of the time (1-(45/47)*(44/46)*(43/45)*(42/44)). So 16.5% of your 11.8% is 1.9%. So we'll say that 1.9% of the time you will lose $68.

That leaves 9.9% of the time when you will flop a set and win (not accounding for straights and flushes either way).

0.882*(-4)+0.019*(-68)+0.099*X has to be greater than 0 to make this a +EV call before the flop. That makes the breakeven point $48.46 in this case. So if you think you can extract $49 from the villain when you flop your set then it is a good call pre-flop. That's why you are hoping that your opponent has a huge hand. AA would be the ideal situation.


Edited to fix the overset situation to include the turn and river cards.

[sourbeaver]

My ruke of thumb wasn't too far off then.
I usually take the amount of the raise and multiply it by 10, if I can make at least that much off the opponent if I stack him, I call. I don't account for times when I don't stack him, which could lead to some of my calls being somewhat -EV.

Let's add some +EV from the effect of a bigger stack, and the fact that you get just about everyone covered on the table when you double up.