Do you make this play?

[fourgapper]

Watching UB 25-50 last night, two players ("Glen Quagmire" and "XX RAGED XX") got in a heated discussion about the following play:

Do you never/sometimes/always push with a gutshot HU when you put your opponent on a weak ace? For example, you hold 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Suppose your opponent leads out, do you push? What if he has position? What if you have a backdoor flush to go along with the gutshot?

EDIT: assume deep stacks here.

I've never made that play but the claim was that it can be highly profitable given a fairly good read on one's opponent.

4gapper

[Loci]

Ummm... I would do this almost never... Aside from the fact that his weak ace might have two paired the board, if you're called with Acee Deucee you're still screwed. I suppose it would matter how much money was in the pot, but I'm not going to ever overcommit myself with a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]/8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] preflop with deep stacks... Why bet so much for so little? You get burned once and you've lost more than you'll ever make with this play. Just wait for another hand.

[ObnxNole]

Im assuming its profitable for your opponents and not u.

[craze9]

Doing this could be profitable.

But it has nothing to do with your gutshot or with the cards you are holding whatsoever. It's a bluff, plain and simple. You want a fold, and if you dont get one, youre in bad shape.

Not really much to discuss.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Doing this could be profitable.

But it has nothing to do with your gutshot or with the cards you are holding whatsoever. It's a bluff, plain and simple. You want a fold, and if you dont get one, youre in bad shape.

Not really much to discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all my money is in the pot I think it makes a huge difference if I have 20% pot equity or 0%.

Ciaffone/Reuben discuss this exact scenario in their book.

[greywolf]

yes it makes big difference if you have 0 outs or 4 outs when you are bluffing

[fourgapper]

Thanks for the useful responses. I guess then the whole point of their conversation was that if the bettor holds a weak ace, and the all-in raiser thinks that, it can be a good bluff. The gutshot outs help justify the bluff.

Now, if you're the bettor with something like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], when do you lay it down to a large all-in raise like that?

[craze9]

Obviously if you get called you would rather have 4 outs than 0 outs.

But if you get called your play has failed.

My point is that your gutshot is not very important. You could have middle pair, you could have "0" outs. But if you make this move w/ "0" outs its because you have a read and think your fold equity is very high. If you make this play because you have a gutshot then your thinking is muddled and rather dangerous.

Basically i'm saying the question should not be "do you raise your opponent hoping he will fold because you have a gutshot" but "do you raise your opponent when you put him on a weak ace and believe he will fold."