sensing weakness

[phifediggy]

6-handed 5/10 NL live, hero has been playing pretty loose preflop. opponents have been pretty tight and moderately aggressive.

relevant stack sizes:
hero $1200
SB $800
UTG $1000

UTG and MP both limp, hero calls in CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], button folds, SB raises to $35, BB folds, UTG and MP call, hero calls.

flop Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets $45, UTG doubles the bet to $90, hero calls, SB calls. at this point i'm putting SB on top pair and UTG on a flush draw.

turn is an 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, hero bets $250. thoughts?

[thabadguy]

There was a post recently about a flop minraise being real weak. If you trust ur reads, I dont mind the play at all. I make this sorta play a lot and have been quite successful with it, i like this for metagame reasons as well.
I suggest if you make this sorta play and, if/when its folded, i like to show the hand, as I play similarly with an 8.Combined with your loose preflop image, this can also buy you some cheap draws.

[DanK]

If you like think UTG is week, I prefer raising again on the flop, it gives you a very good chance to pick up the pot. And if you are called and hit on the turn you can get paid off huge, and iff you miss c the river for free.

But again on reraising the flop, givin the reads you have on your opponents they will have a very hand time calling. I would make it 275 on the flop if I was going to keep playing and exepect to take it down a large amount of the time.

Also by just calling you have a problem if you hit at the same time the flush shows up, and if you miss you will may face a bet too big to call if he bets his pair again.

[JeffM]

I don't like the flop call at all. I would fold or raise with the raise being to take it right there and then. I don't like to chase straight with two flush flops because the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] might get you into a lot of trouble. Now you're talking about only 6 outs that you'd be very happy to see and you're not even sure you'd get paid if you got there. That being said, since you did go ahead and call I like the turn bet a lot. Even a strong queen is not happy about that bet and a weak one should probably fold. If you get raised you should then vomit.

[Murderous]

When considering you have been playing "pretty loose preflop" and your opponents appear to be tight and somewhat aggressive, I think a reraise on the flop will most likely be looking at a SB/UTG push.

...and assuming the reads on your opponents to be accurate, it is my opinion that this is an easy fold on the flop (barring additional information of course). You are getting no where near the implied odds to make this call.

I'm really on the fence about your turn bet. I see the value in it but what do you think they put you on? An eight? Unlikely... They can’t put you on AA, KK, QQ, a set, etc. you would have certainly reraised that flop. Why bet here? Heads up, maybe…I think you are too far behind this board too often and if anyone is feeling frisky then you will most certainly be put to the test on the river (if not immediately). I check-off the turn.

I like checking the turn and pushing the river better than I like your turn bet but you may have had a strong read on these two that I am not getting in your post.

[piki]

I like the line a lot. I wouldnt overbet the pot, but if they were good players, ones that know about betting for value, I would consider a bet of ~80% of the pot after thinking about it for some time. You have a great hand for this because even if someone is slow playing an 8, you still have a number of outs.

results?

[piki]

[ QUOTE ]
When considering you have been playing "pretty loose preflop" and your opponents appear to be tight and somewhat aggressive, I think a reraise on the flop will most likely be looking at a SB/UTG push.

...and assuming the reads on your opponents to be accurate, it is my opinion that this is an easy fold on the flop (barring additional information of course). You are getting no where near the implied odds to make this call.

I'm really on the fence about your turn bet. I see the value in it but what do you think they put you on? An eight? Unlikely... They can’t put you on AA, KK, QQ, a set, etc. you would have certainly reraised that flop. Why bet here? Heads up, maybe…I think you are too far behind this board too often and if anyone is feeling frisky then you will most certainly be put to the test on the river (if not immediately). I check-off the turn.

I like checking the turn and pushing the river better than I like your turn bet but you may have had a strong read on these two that I am not getting in your post.

[/ QUOTE ]
You make great points, and after reading your post you almost changed my mind. However, why would someone with TP not bet out on the turn when it paired the board? I smell two draws and I think a bet of 75% of the pot wins it outright more times than not.

Checking is a sure sign of weakness. Both players have bet preflop and flop and its still a multiway pot. Why would they now check the turn? What are they afraid of? I think Hero has a strong table image and they dont want to risk any of their stacks and are looking for a reason to get away from this hand.

[Murderous]

[ QUOTE ]
You make great points, and after reading your post you almost changed my mind. However, why would someone with TP not bet out on the turn when it paired the board? I smell two draws and I think a bet of 75% of the pot wins it outright more times than not.

Checking is a sure sign of weakness. Both players have bet preflop and flop and its still a multiway pot. Why would they now check the turn? What are they afraid of? I think Hero has a strong table image and they dont want to risk any of their stacks and are looking for a reason to get away from this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand is obviously very read dependant, but IMO, UTG's min-raise is too obvious (especially in a multiway pot with one player to act). It smells more like he's setting the trap for hero to call (and SB to complete) with set(8s?). The turn was probably the perfect card for SB's QQ or UTG's 88. Then again maybe we're talking over-pairs.

If in fact we are even talking TP here (which considering the flop min-raise and SB flat-call I just don't see) I think both SB and UTG were surprised in having hero come along for the turn. And, given the fact he only "called", one or the other may put HERO on a draw. If their read on hero is "loose" why not let him play his position and hang himself?

I may be wrong but I see chips flying here.

I respect your line and you are right, most times position will win this pot outright. Again, this is a very read dependant hand.

[piki]

Great insights, thanks for sharing.

When Hero bets the turn here, do you think someone c/r's or calls behind? If they c/r into 2 players, more power to them, but then we know they have a set (ill pay quads everytime) and we can decide if we want to see the river. If either simply calls behind, I dont see them betting out and we should be able to get out easy unless we think a complete bluff will get them to fold.

Edit: Could the min-raise have been a probe for a set in this multiway pot?

results?

[phifediggy]

thanks for the replies guys. i did realize that the flop call was not so sound and i probably wouldnt make the play normally but i've played with these guys for quite some time and i didnt feel like either had a really big holding.

in the actual hand SB folded after long deliberation (he later said he had KQ) and UTG folded Q5 face up