Play a Hand With the Donks

[LethalRose]

gotta raise the flop. mp3's smallish probe bet on that draw heavy of a flop is praying to get raised. Would AA, KK bet so little and give them all perfect odds to draw?

fold....the chances are too great that you are beat or will be beat.

[adanthar]

Hahaha this thread is a bit overaggro...and by that I mean *way* overaggro. You can bet out (maybe, kinda, if you feel lucky) but once his bet gets not one, but two calls, I just fold.

You think your top pair is good after that flop action? They may be donks but they all have to be playing Q9s or worse to be losing to you at this point (go ahead, put all three of them on hands you beat. Be honest.) If for some reason your hand *is* best now, what percentage of the time, given that range, will it hold up by the river?

If I hit the call button by accident I would also have a very quick and easy fold on the turn.

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what you gotta remember is you're playing that QJ for straight value, not top pair, and not for two pair

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This kind of advice is very bad. Consistency has no place in game theory. Each decision is independent and such.

I lead the flop, but I don't mind checking with the intent of raising. I'd raise even after those callers though (perhaps even because of them). Not sure if this is right.

Very sure that folding the turn is right.

[ QUOTE ]
Hahaha this thread is a bit overaggro...and by that I mean *way* overaggro. You can bet out (maybe, kinda, if you feel lucky) but once his bet gets not one, but two calls, I just fold.

You think your top pair is good after that flop action? They may be donks but they all have to be playing Q9s or worse to be losing to you at this point (go ahead, put all three of them on hands you beat. Be honest.) If for some reason your hand *is* best now, what percentage of the time, given that range, will it hold up by the river?

If I hit the call button by accident I would also have a very quick and easy fold on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis. I take back what I said about the flop.

[ansky451]

I havent read the responses, so sorry if this has already been pointed out.

The pot size is incorrect. 4 Players in for 800 preflop + antes has to be over 3200 on the flop. I dont know how that changes things, but it does. A player betting 800 into 3200 on the flop looks very weak to me, and looks like a scared AK / JJ. Because of this, I do raise the flop, to something like 3600. If I'm called I do some serious reevaluating on the turn if I dont imrove.

Given the way the hand played out, I think its an easy fold on the turn.

I agree with some of the others that there are two choices, push or fold. I'm not concerned over the MP3 hand which you probably have covered. It smells like a big pair or overcards.

The cold calls and raise by the other player and the small blind have me worried here.

The pot is offering 6:1 whereas you are about 10:1 with 4 shots to improve to the boat. However, in this case, I think there is a very high probability that at least one and probably two of your outs are dead.

I think it all comes down to whether or not you think your two pair is good at that point. If yes, then I think you push to try to either take it down there or make someone pay dearly for the right to try to river you.

If no, which I think is probably the case here, then I think you probably have to let it go. I suspect that the turn raiser may have something like two larger hearts.

IMHO, there is a high likelihood that your two pair is in 2nd or 3rd place and one or two of your outs are dead. So as much as I would really want to go forward here, I think I have to seriously think about letting go.

[Pat Southern]

You have enough to lead out and either play back at a raise, ro get a feel with what he has and decide what to do in the future and after a bet and a call I think i give it up

[mmbapmashida]

Bet at least 2,000 on the flop. Then I probably end up folding the turn min-raise by the button, losing a lot on this hand.

[mrh86]

Oops, sorry about my response yesterday. I thought that the jack of hearts was the river card, not the turn card.