OT: Overcoming the Gambler's Mindset

I used to play a lot of blackjack. While I knew the odds were stacked against me, I was always very good about winning a few units and walking away. I knew I could beat the odds in the short run and would take my winnings and run. When I made the transition to poker, I found myself doing the same. Because the two games are so different, I know I need to adjust my "walk-away" threshholds. After some thinking, I had the following questions that I was hoping to get some insight on.

When you are playing sngs, 20+ a day, what do you look at when making your decision to start up another set or to call it a day? Are you looking at +/- for the session, do you shoot for a number (20 a day) and re-evaluate whether you should play more once you hit the number?

I find that I often start slow and come on strong to finish up for the day. For example, this is not uncommon for me. I started 0/6 the other day, but finished 1, 8, 2, 2, 3, 1. If you start slow and come on strong, would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up? Or, if you hit your 20 that day, ended strong and were up 6 buy ins, would you walk away for the night?

In terms of losing, do you set a daily loss limit? Lets say you are 8 sngs into your 20/day target and you are down 8 buy ins. Do you call it a day and have at it tomorrow, or do you power through the 20 and see where you stand when the dust clears?

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

You can win in the short run, but it's not the same as beating the odds. All sessions really add up to one big session. If you're counting cards and betting properly and not getting any heat then you might be able to "beat the odds".

In poker, as any gambling, if you have an edge, you play. If you don't have an edge, for whatever reason, tired, sick, distracted, low skill level, up against players you cannot beat, then you don't play.

Work on your decision making, your game. If you do this long enough you'll have losing streaks long enough to make you think you'll never win again.

The best way to overcome a gambler's mindset is to not have one in the first place.

EDIT: To address other portions of your post, I would set a goal for each day based on your longer term goals. As long as I were confident that I were playing well, I'd continue until I met that goal, regardless of the short term outcomes. If the day ended on a high note, I'd still quit, time to eat, socialize, take a break, get out of the house, live life.

thanks for the reply. I am happy with my game and believe it is profitable and sustainable. But I am sure we all think that about our own game.

I have read it before, to think of every day as an extension of the previous, or as one continuous session.

So I guess the answer is to just play until you hit your goal, and quit for the day, regardless if you end on a high note or with a bad beat, whether you are up or down. Set goals and stick to them, the $$ will take care of themselves.

Exactly! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[MegaBet]

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thanks for the reply. I am happy with my game and believe it is profitable and sustainable. But I am sure we all think that about our own game.

I have read it before, to think of every day as an extension of the previous, or as one continuous session.

So I guess the answer is to just play until you hit your goal, and quit for the day, regardless if you end on a high note or with a bad beat, whether you are up or down. Set goals and stick to them, the $$ will take care of themselves.

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That's exactly how I play.

You don't understand probability. Trials are independent. The cards on a blackjack table have absolutely no idea who you are, how long you've been there, how much you're betting, or how much you like money. If you play 5 hands of blackjack every day for 1 million days, congratualations on playing 5k hands of blackjack, but don't think you've somehow beaten the law of large numbers. ALso, if you play one hand of blackjack, you win it like 49%, so the majority of the time you lose and your expected value is negative. You're throwing away money no matter what at the blackjack table, so only play if you're actually enjoying it.

Similarly, the random number generators on online poker sites don't decide to continue a hot streak or not to continue a hot streak, they just spit out numbers at random. If you're making your decisions based on whether or not you think you're on a hot streak, or crackpot theories about having a better expected value in the short run, you're not playing optimally and probably are playing badly.

Dude, dont assume anything, its a mindset, not an understanding issue. I understand probability. it is a matter of preference in a sense, risk aversion, etc.

second, dont fixate on blackjack, i havent played in a long time, i was just stating an example and games i used to play. your points are already known to me, therefore not helpful. i already said BJ is a -EV game, no need to write a paragraph on it.

I understand that cards, regardless if online or in live games, are random. But for you to say there is no hot or cold steaks also implies no heaters or variance. I think I have a better understanding of this stuff than you think...maybe yours is a bit questionable.

You said this:

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I knew I could beat the odds in the short run and would take my winnings and run.

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Unless you made a typo and meant to say "I thought I could beat the odds in the short run, and was lucky enough to come out ahead and not play anymore," you don't understand probability. Given the slant of the rest of what you said, you don't understand probability.

This is very bad for poker and I suggest that you think about it.

As for heaters and cold streaks, they certainly happen, but it's important to understand that they don't perpetuate themselves. This question:

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would you continue to play because you are making good decisions and your hands appear to be holding up?

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gives me the impression that you don't understand this. Winning your last 20 coinflips doesn't change the odds of your 21st coinflip.

It's possible that you have heard these comments and know them to be true, but simply do not understand their application yet. However, you do not understand probabilty.

I'm trying to help you. I promise I'm right. Please learn not to think about gambling mathematically and not in terms of luck and streak and short-run fluctuations.

you are making inferrences incorrectly, sorry bro. You are reading into what i was saying in terms of BJ as a game i used to play quite a bit. I realize that coin flips are exactly that, 50/50 regardless of how many times you win or lose consecutively, i know that and to infer otherwise is silly.

i dont feel like wasting my time on your replies because they dont help me, i understand what you are saying. i am trying to overcome irrational thinking/the wrong mindset, and it has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH MY UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY. You are misreading the questions as most do here and decide to type an answer that has nothing to do with the question.

Plus, short term, you can win in BJ. I wasnt trying to win money long term, just fun money for partying. you need to understand the context of the question. I dont think you have an understanding of the english language. Trust me, IM RIGHT.

[Apathy]

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Plus, short term, you can win in BJ. I wasnt trying to win money long term, just fun money for partying.

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If by win you mean you expect to win more then you lose (which it seems is what you are trying to infer) then no you can't. Unfortunatly you got lucky and now a problem of results oriented learning has continued into poker.

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Trust me, IM RIGHT.

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Famous last words.