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  #11  
Old 10-29-2005, 07:00 AM
Sparks Sparks is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]
What hand range do you put him on that makes calling the turn and folding the river correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

When he bet the turn, I'm very sure he has AT. If folding the river was tough, folding the turn was even more difficult, if even correct. I did have 3 outs on the turn. Once I called the turn, and he bet the river, I was 90% sure he had AT (the only hand he could have, really) but just could not lay it down. Calling the river, to me, was a clear mistake.

The 2+2 responses have been "call the river", "call the river" and "go to the small stakes forum."

Nice.

Sparks
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  #12  
Old 10-29-2005, 10:15 AM
Jeffage Jeffage is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

Wouldn't opponent play something like AQ or AJ the same way here possibly? He bets the flop b/c he has aces, you raise, he get's worried or whatever and calls. Then the 5's pair...hmmm, maybe he'll give me a 5 or well, maybe my ace is good anyway. I bet. Ok, he just calls. Well, he probably won't raise the river here even with AK cause he'll fear I have the A10 or whatever. So I'll just bet again in case he has KK or something.

Now, if you're saying this opponent would NEVER do this, then ok. You are talking about a player specific read and your inability to act on it, not the hand itself. So possibly...psychology forum might be better?

Jeff
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  #13  
Old 10-29-2005, 10:44 AM
SpaceAce SpaceAce is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]

The 2+2 responses have been "call the river", "call the river" and "go to the small stakes forum."

Nice.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ooh, you're not gonna like this one bit: Call the river.

Whatever reasons you give for your call on the turn (ie, "It was just a bad call"), what the call shows is that even you don't really have faith in this read you say you have. If your read isn't strong enough to fold the turn, it sure isn't strong enough to fold the river when the pot is two bets bigger and the board cards haven't gotten any uglier. Therefore, call the river.

I don't see folding the river without a super read. If you had a super read, you wouldn't have evev seen the river. Ergo, you don't have a super read. QED, E. Pluribus Unum, Vox Populi, 10-4, over and out. Call the river.

SpaceAce
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  #14  
Old 10-29-2005, 12:38 PM
Ryno Ryno is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

If you were going to read strength into his trying to keep EP in, and then betting the turn when he loses EP, you have to make the fold on the turn. On the river, you are getting more than double the price and you haven't narrowed his hand range.

Maybe if Gino had the look I would fold the turn, but turn donkbets are not generally strength so I would get to showdown against 95% of people.
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  #15  
Old 10-29-2005, 01:07 PM
anatta anatta is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

The other posters are right, considering folding this river is just silly. All he did was donk turn and bet river. Its limit holdem, you have TP/TK, headsup, the board is non-threatening. Call.

Also his line is a bit strange for a guy who has you beat. This is sort of the Ed Miller if its weird, he is weak or very strong and pot odds dictate a call in case he is weak (sort of, this is an easy call regardless) but I am sure you'll agree that most players would three-bet flop or check-raise turn with top two, so unless you are playing mikel who is waiting for you to raise the turn (which most 2+2ers would I suspect) so he can 3 bet you, then its just a strange move.

This may not apply with this guy, but many cannot resist donking the turn when the board pairs. Even when it should be obvious that you aren't folding and they don't have it. Other guys habitually donk it when you raise the flop in a "free card" type manner when last to act after some callers. Even when it should be obvious you aren't drawing since there are no draws. They just think, he wants a free card, I'll stop n go like I always do with my pair.
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  #16  
Old 10-29-2005, 02:09 PM
geormiet geormiet is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

I don't know what happened to L@TB 30/60, I guess it was just too boring to watch. I don't live in LA now anymore (at least for a few months) anyway, so it doesn't matter to me.

Many/most of the responses are good. However, it's advice coming from players describing online conditions.

I have put in a lot of hours both online and in so cal mid limits, and i have to say that the meaning of the turn donk is a lot different in a typical live 30/60 game than a 30/60 online game.

In short, the live play donk is much more honest than the online donk.
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  #17  
Old 10-29-2005, 02:29 PM
Garland Garland is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]
EP called...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious with this a bit. Did EP drop out on the flop or the turn?

Also, I'm curious why no one is advocating a turn raise here. The 5 was a beautiful card for your hand.

You mentioned AT being a strong possibility. AT doesn't make sense as SB would probably 3-bet the flop being an aggressive player.

[ QUOTE ]
Once I called the turn, and he bet the river, I was 90% sure he had AT (the only hand he could have, really) but just could not lay it down. Calling the river, to me, was a clear mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When he bet the turn, I'm very sure he has AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

However, it is your read. If we go with that and you were *that* sure he had AT, then it's much, much better to fold the turn than it is to call the turn and fold the river.

As it plays out, you must call the river. Not only do you have a very strong hand that I think you didn't play strongly enough. If you fold the river, you're setting yourself up to get run over in the future.

Garland
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  #18  
Old 10-29-2005, 05:27 PM
Sparks Sparks is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]
However, it is your read. If we go with that and you were *that* sure he had AT, then it's much, much better to fold the turn than it is to call the turn and fold the river.

As it plays out, you must call the river. Not only do you have a very strong hand that I think you didn't play strongly enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure. Although I had a strong read when he bet the turn, a fold didn't seem right, with a card to come. And a raise would be the worst play. Why would I raise into a hand that has me beat, with a non-threatening board? He either calls, then checks (or bets) the river, or, he 3-bets me right there, and I have to lay it down without a chance of catching on the river. Regardless, I did call the turn, and when he bets the river, I now have a very strong read (90%), which is the whole point of this post. He simply has to have AT. There is no other hand that would make much sense.

As geormet has said, it's probably just the difference between live and online play. Online, I agree, it's a quick call on the river. But this live situation is a very specific hand-reading exercise.

While there are several analyses of AQ, and "donk turn bet" (whatever that is) and such, I'm more of the school of simplicity, seeing the hand and the betting for what it is, and not over-thinking it. I raised PF and on the flop, and this typical player bet into me on the turn. I'm almost surely beat, and that's the end of it. A call on the river is incorrect. To recommend calling the river is just a game theory answer, and is missing, I think, the nature of this particular hand. Still, the responses now with their analysis (even if I disagree), are helpful. Thanks.

Sparks
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  #19  
Old 10-29-2005, 05:31 PM
Sparks Sparks is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]
You are talking about a player specific read and your inability to act on it, not the hand itself. So possibly...psychology forum might be better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad point. Seriously. I showed my hand, said "I know what you have," then called.

I may have issues.

Sparks
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  #20  
Old 10-29-2005, 05:49 PM
Garland Garland is offline
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Default Re: 30-60 River Decision

[ QUOTE ]
Although I had a strong read when he bet the turn, a fold didn't seem right, with a card to come.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a read that strong, a turn fold then becomes absolutely correct. With 6.5 big bets on the turn (assuming EP dropped out on the flop), you are asked to call 7.5:1 when you *know* you only have 3 outs (44:3 or 14.6:1 pot odds). Compound this with the possibility you are wrong and he could have a boat, and you are drawing dead part of the time. These are horrible odds knowing what you know even if you feel you're going to get 2 more big bets on the river if you catch a K.

Just my general feeling from this hand. You're playing scared poker. Playing no limit for about two years has made me appreciate strong, but not super strong limit hands like TPTK and how aggression is the key to this game.

If you have a strong read or tell on the turn that only you are privy to knowing, fine. Just fold the turn and be done with it. However, if you're calling the turn, you absolutely must call the river. Don't contradict yourself by calling the turn and folding the river.

Yes, you were right in this case, but by the river, you only have to have a winner 1 in 9 times to make the call correct. Odds I'll take any day with your hand.

Garland
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