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  #81  
Old 10-12-2005, 12:29 AM
Gabe Gabe is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

You really gave this some thought. The only things I don‘t quite follow are:

“That's $1140 / hr, but we have to pay the blinds ($45 * 4), leaving a net profit of $960 / hr, or .4 BB / hand.”

“75% of the time we win the blinds for 1.125 SB / hand”

You’re, essentially, paying a 2sb blind every hand, since you’ll always be putting in at least 2sb’s pre-flop. The only time, the fact that you’re in the blinds, matters much is when you just pick up the blinds.

With you’re first figure 1.125, it looks like you took 1.5*.75. The blinds in 30/60 are usually 30 and 20. So it should be 1.67 when you pick up the blinds from out of the blinds, and 1.00 when you’re in the SB and .67 when you’re in the BB. Using you’re estimate of winning the blinds 75% of the time: 1.84*.75=1.38

One small thing, that is going to have really not going to change the bottom line, is:

“3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate)”

“.6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative)”

I’m pretty sure the minimax in the first example is 7sb and the second example is 8sb.

I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?
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  #82  
Old 10-12-2005, 12:35 AM
mike l. mike l. is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.
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  #83  
Old 10-12-2005, 12:43 AM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.


[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't he say your opponents are experts?

Edit: nevermind. He said that 'experts' in the JJ thread but not in the KK thread. I wonder if that was intentional.

I've spent enough time thinking about this anyway.
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  #84  
Old 10-12-2005, 02:12 AM
Sparks Sparks is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. Ax is definitely playable from either blind and probably outside the blinds as well, although somewhat marginal there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you assuming a raise every time PF from KK? If not, you should be, I think.

Sparks

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Of course I'm assuming KK raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, then how is calling a raise with Ax +EV? A simple adjustment to the KK strategy of raising every time PF, but check-calling whenever an A shows up, means you will be -EV. The way I see it, going to showdown, Ax loses 2 out of 3 times. If you miss the flop and fold, then you're folding 4 out of 5 times, and losing $60 each time for a total of $240. On the 5th time, when you catch (and go on to win), you make 60 + 30 + 60 +60 = $210.

How is that +EV? Not saying your'e wrong, I just don't see it.

Sparks
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  #85  
Old 10-12-2005, 11:51 AM
Gabe Gabe is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.


[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe you said this. How often do you see an old guy, who only raises with AA, KK, QQ, or AK, get called in the blinds from someone with Ax? I see it all the time.
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  #86  
Old 10-12-2005, 12:18 PM
mike l. mike l. is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

"I can't believe you said this. How often do you see an old guy, who only raises with AA, KK, QQ, or AK, get called in the blinds from someone with Ax? I see it all the time."

but that's different from the player actually turning his KK up and saying "here's what i got for the whole table to see, you still wanna call?" that breaks the blind's suspension of disbelief and even they would start to fold.
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  #87  
Old 10-12-2005, 12:34 PM
andyfox andyfox is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

"I'm sure you could be a great poker player and never think about things like this."

But I would think that a player who did think about things like this, and knew how to come up with an accurate answer, would be a favorite over a player who didn't and couldn't. Especially in no-limit.
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  #88  
Old 10-12-2005, 02:45 PM
tpir90036 tpir90036 is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
that's wrong as well. folded to SB who makes a raise small in comparison to both blinds stacks, at that point SB's hand is revealed to be AA (both players know the BB knows). with what range of hands can the BB profitably call? DS says all hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's the same thing though since the AA is revealed after the small raise. If I knew you knew I had AA before I did anything I would just move in pre-flop to prevent you from being able to outplay me perfectly.
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  #89  
Old 10-12-2005, 05:51 PM
elindauer elindauer is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

Hi Gabe,

[ QUOTE ]
With you’re first figure 1.125, it looks like you took 1.5*.75. The blinds in 30/60 are usually 30 and 20.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I used the 15/30 structure from partypoker, since I didn't know the answer.

[ QUOTE ]
So it should be 1.67 when you pick up the blinds from out of the blinds, and 1.00 when you’re in the SB and .67 when you’re in the BB. Using you’re estimate of winning the blinds 75% of the time: 1.67*.75=1.25

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP, I think.

I did it the way I did so I wouldn't have to treat the SB and BB independently. I just paid the blinds up front (-1.66 * 4) and then look at everything after that as pure profit. It's no more correct, just easier this way I think.


[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
“3% of the time the BB draws to an ace and catches, winning 7SB from us (conservative estimate)”

“.6% of the time BB draws to pocket pair and flops a set, winning 9 SB from us (pretty conservative)”

[/ QUOTE ]

I’m pretty sure the minimax in the first example is 7sb and the second example is 8sb.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was making the very conservative estimate that the KK would allow a turn check-raise on a non-ace-high board, since I knew this would exclude anyone from drawing and feeling they could frequently call the flop and see the river, complicating the math. I agree that an improvement on this strategy is probably possible, I was just being conservative.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if he's calling correctly, you're losing. I think the strategy improvements I described at the end of my post outweigh these finer adjustments to the EV calculation though. Call it $1000 - $1100 / hr.


Thanks,
Eric
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  #90  
Old 10-12-2005, 05:54 PM
elindauer elindauer is offline
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Default Re: Hypothetical Question

[ QUOTE ]
"I think you’re right, in that the SB should call a raise with an A, but you should gain from this, right?"

no one is gonna be calling raises with anything. everyone's going to be folding almost every hand. theyre going to sit there preflop each time and say woah watch out that guy has KK, im folding! almost every hand you will just collect the blinds.

you guys are falling into the classic trap of thinking that most players think on the level you do. no one does.


[/ QUOTE ]

Mike, I think you're probably right in practice. I didn't find the realistic question very interesting though, since I'm never going to get KK face up over and over again anyways, so I approached it from the angle of my profit if my opponents played perfectly.

On a side note, if I ever DID get KK over and over again every hand, it would almost certainly be a prop bet of some kind, and I suspect my opponents would in fact play very well.

-Eric
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