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#71
10-11-2005, 06:12 PM
 tablecop Junior Member Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 5
Re: Hypothetical Question

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I'm not familiar with the example, but claim AA in no limit is always profitable. Move in preflop. Perhaps you meant pot-limit with deep stacks?

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In the example the person with AA is not aware his opponent knows he has AA every hand. Pot-limit with deep stacks could play out the same way I imagine.

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that's wrong as well. folded to SB who makes a raise small in comparison to both blinds stacks, at that point SB's hand is revealed to be AA (both players know the BB knows). with what range of hands can the BB profitably call? DS says all hands.
#72
10-11-2005, 06:18 PM
 LearnedfromTV Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Van down by the river Posts: 176
Re: Hypothetical Question

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I'm not familiar with the example, but claim AA in no limit is always profitable. Move in preflop. Perhaps you meant pot-limit with deep stacks?

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In the example the person with AA is not aware his opponent knows he has AA every hand. Pot-limit with deep stacks could play out the same way I imagine.

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that's wrong as well. folded to SB who makes a raise small in comparison to both blinds stacks, at that point SB's hand is revealed to be AA (both players know the BB knows). with what range of hands can the BB profitably call? DS says all hands.

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And he's right. Although I heard about this as a problem given by Chris Ferguson a few years ago at an rgp convention. The idea is that the implied odds of outflopping combined with the opportunity to three-barrel bluff, two-barrel bluff/semi-bluff, and one-barrel bluff/semi-bluff each with optimal frequency make it impossible for AA to profit.

The reason Sklansky had to use KK instead of AA for a limit example is the opponent can't make pot-size bluffs so correct bluffing frequency is much lower. I.E. AA is correct to just call down. I'm not convinced KK is.
#73
10-11-2005, 09:12 PM
 Sparks Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 33
Re: Hypothetical Question

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- you have to pay the blinds. Subtract \$180 / hr.
- Ax can call profitably from the blinds.

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Ahh yes. Note that the blinds are 20 and 30. Also, I'm not so sure that Ax is profitable. Even with Ax suited, it only wins 1/3 of the time when going to showdown.

Revised formula for win rate:

(37 x 50) - (3.7 x 50) = 1665
3 x (90 + 60 + 120 +120) = 1170

So if you play like a robot, always bet, call, and don't re-raise, you'll make 1665 - 1170 = 495/hour. The above equation assumes the worst case scenario when you're in the blind and get three bet PF for \$90. In reality your profit would be a little higher than \$495.

Sparks
#74
10-11-2005, 09:28 PM
 Sparks Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 33
Re: Hypothetical Question

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. Ax is definitely playable from either blind and probably outside the blinds as well, although somewhat marginal there.

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Are you assuming a raise every time PF from KK? If not, you should be, I think.

Sparks
#75
10-11-2005, 09:38 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

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In a typical ten handed 30-60 game where you normally make \$50 an hour, what would your win rate be if you were dealt two face up kings every hand and your opponents didn't collude? (Assume 40 hands per hour.)

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Why would anyone who is serious about poker care about the answer to this question?

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Ha. Good question. I find it interesting for two reasons:

1. I think the first step to understanding poker well is seening how the game would be played with perfect information. This question is a bit more complicated than that base case, but still provides some intersting math and discussion about bluffing frequency etc.

2. It's interesting to compare your expected win when your cards are known to the average win of KK when dealt face down. It helps put a real number on the value of deception.

I can see that it's a somewhat theoretical concept though that might not interest you. I'm sure you could be a great poker player and never think about things like this.

my 2 cents.
Eric
#76
10-11-2005, 09:40 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

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. Ax is definitely playable from either blind and probably outside the blinds as well, although somewhat marginal there.

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Are you assuming a raise every time PF from KK? If not, you should be, I think.

Sparks

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Huh? Of course I'm assuming KK raises. If there was no raise, we wouldn't be having a discussion about what hands were playable from the big blind! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric
#77
10-11-2005, 09:42 PM
 elindauer Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 292
Re: Hypothetical Question

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I'm not so sure that Ax is profitable. Even with Ax suited, it only wins 1/3 of the time when going to showdown.

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Hi Sparks,

You don't have to show it down just because you called the flop. Ax is definitely playable from the blinds if KK will call down an ace-high board.

good luck.
eric
#78
10-11-2005, 09:50 PM
 Eric P Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: chicago Posts: 334
Re: Hypothetical Question

I think that your opponents don't know you have pocket kings for the sake of this example
#79
10-11-2005, 11:04 PM
 LarsVegas Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 75
Re: Hypothetical Question

I am right in thinking that if someone chose to play sub-par hands with some potential against you, hoping others would enter the pot with them, that the KK would be worse off if several pots go four or five way?

And players will be "colluding" in an honest non-colluding way against you still, in multiway pots. You can probably see why in a three-way, more bets are going to go in between two-pair (having the KK beaten of course) and a straight.

Lars
#80
10-11-2005, 11:05 PM
 LarsVegas Member Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 75
Re: Hypothetical Question

I am right in thinking that if someone chose to play sub-par hands with some potential against you, hoping others would enter the pot with them, that the KK would be worse off if several pots go four or five way?

And players will be "colluding" in an honest non-colluding way against you still, in multiway pots. You can probably see why in a three-way, more bets are going to go in between two-pair (having the KK beaten of course) and a straight, as long as the KK is still in there paying off bets too.

Lars

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