Lock it in now: KC -7 vs Cinci (or tease with Bucs -6.5 or Pitt -7)

playersare · #1 12-27-2005, 05:15 PM

where is this crazy movement you see? it opened 7 and is still 7 with minimal juice changing hands so far. this game is MINIMALLY shading towards the chiefs and most books aren't even taking bets on this matchup yet.

I hope you got some Lions +17 and Packers -3-105 while you were analyzing this one.

jedinite · #2 12-27-2005, 05:22 PM

I showed it opening at KC -2 and bouncing to -7. If I've been given incorrect info, I apologize.

I did see Detroit +17, but I don't think I'd play even Detroit +21 against the Steelers in a must-win, with the Steelers outscoring their opponents 80-12 in their last three games - against better opponents than Detroit.

CCx · #3 12-27-2005, 05:24 PM

where did you see it open at -2?

jedinite · #4 12-27-2005, 05:31 PM

It was fed in to my tracker at KC -2 but I can't chase down the source from here. The only thing I've been able to find manually is that Sheridan set KC -2 but I don't know of any casino that opened it. But its possible that someone in Vegas had the lines up early based on Sheridan's odds and that was my starting source. I can't say for sure right now, but that's what triggered my "wow this line is really on the move" thinking.

I first saw it on Pinnacle at -7 -104, which is what I placed at. Its already been spotted two places at -8 -105 or worse, and Pinnacle has -7 -108 which is the best I can currently find among the books currently carrying it.

So if it did in fact open at -7 everywhere, the movement hasn't been huge yet. But that's a good thing. This line is going to move.

jedinite · #5 12-27-2005, 06:00 PM

I'll add that I _really_ like this teased to KC PK and Tampa -6.5. Pitt -7 also has good value here as they're also in a need-to-win game. If the KC line heads north of -7, I especially like the tease to bring it back down if you can still get Pitt -7 or Tampa -6.5 at that time.

I added the teaser detail to the parent post, but I know a lot of people could miss that its been edited if they've already read it prior, so I figured I'd post it specifically.

jedinite · #6 12-27-2005, 06:14 PM

One more bit of detail: Larry Johnson can break Priest Holmes' single season franchise rushing record (yards, but not TDs) and can do so having started only eight games. I think KC will be in a massive push to do so, both for the franchise/fans and so that there won't be so much backlash next year when they trade Priest.