aces all the way

[Mac]

Roland,

This is an interesting hand, and it seems like it worked out for you. I'd like to see how others respond, because I think this is a -EV play. Hands that have you beat will call or raise, hands that don't have you beat will fold most of the time here (your board is extremely scary and the pot isn't that big). I prefer check/call here. I think you have a much better shot of a busted straight or low pair making a bluff at you than calling your river bet.

- Mac

[Roland]

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I'd like to see how others respond,

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Yeah me too… but whatever, here are my thoughts:

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Hands that have you beat will call or raise,

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He certainly isn’t folding any better hands; that wasn’t the point of the bet, anyway - it’s a value bet, not a bluff.
I doubt he even raises me with, say, aces up in this spot; he might even just call with a straight or trips. It really doesn’t matter though because I would have folded to a raise.


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hands that don't have you beat will fold most of the time here

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This is where you are wrong. There is no way this guy is folding 9s on the river. And although he obviously should fold against me, he probably shouldn’t against most other (looser) players. He’s actually doing the right thing, just at the wrong time.


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I think you have a much better shot of a busted straight or low pair making a bluff at you

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I don’t think he would ever try to bluff me. The snap-off-a-bluff-approach can be good against the right type of opponent though.


To conclude - betting can’t possibly be -EV, unless my read is somehow totally off and he will bluff-raise me. And it’s not even close, actually.
You should just give it a try and bet in some similar spots. It’s a lot of fun - I enjoy it way more than making “safe” bets with made hands. That’s just me, though. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]