Playing it TOO Safe?

[Nytecaster]

Classic case of overthinking an opponents holding and not remembering to protect the hand against a potentially dangerous board. There is a straight draw and a heart draw that has to be pounded before it can get a chance to develop and slow you down as exampled. Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and lose equity against hands that would normally fold here because you have to not lose the equity when the board gets a bit scary. Make sense?

Worse case scenario you are against K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and you are still ahead in the hand. He may even cap you each round thinking he has the best of it with a hand like that. Okay not worse case scenario but unless you are against trips or two pair, you are looking good.

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But why in the hell do you not raise this flop.

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My logic was this: I figured he was drawing to at most 2 outs with a worse pair or to two running cards. Or I was drawing to two outs if he had JJ or TT. Based on the hands he had played, I thought he would slowplay top or middle set on the flop (I think he thinks I could have AK or AQ here) so I read his bet as an overpair or an attempt to drive me out with AK or AQ. I figure him that most likely its a bigger pair and that I will get paid off for bigger bets if I raise the turn, whereas he might slow down on the turn if we go 2 or 3 bets on the flop.

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