Do I have to bet this turn?

Kumubou · #1 12-20-2005, 03:37 PM

Am I the only one that thinks Hero has more than a slim chance of being ahead here? BB seems aggro enough to 3-bet the flop if he had AA, AK, or KQ (especially on a flop like that), and you are better than 50/50 against 3-betting pairs (18 combinations between 99,TT,and QQ compared to 7 combinations of JJ, KK, and AA). The only other hand I would worry about here is AQ (I doubt he is raising AJ or AT out of the BB like that).

So if it were HU it would be thin at best, I guess. Here, you have SB donking along and while he could have a random ace, he's too passive to ever let you know -- and odds are you have his hand smoked right now. So he is providing a lot of overlay on a bet here, enough so that I think betting here is correct.

-K

kurosh · #2 12-20-2005, 04:53 PM

SB being in there complicates it quite a bit. If it was HU, I would check because BB's range either has you killed or drawing to a max of 5 outs with TT, but probably 2 or so. SB looks like a loose idiot thuogh and I'd like to collect bets from him. If BB CR's, I would cry. You have to call, but have no idea which of your outs are good. Maybe 4, maybe more.

I don't know. It think it's really close. But, I think since BB checked to you, it lowers the likelihood of him having you beat, which makes it a bet.

#3 12-20-2005, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SB being in there complicates it quite a bit. If it was HU, I would check because BB's range either has you killed or drawing to a max of 5 outs with TT, but probably 2 or so. SB looks like a loose idiot thuogh and I'd like to collect bets from him. If BB CR's, I would cry. You have to call, but have no idea which of your outs are good. Maybe 4, maybe more.

I don't know. It think it's really close. But, I think since BB checked to you, it lowers the likelihood of him having you beat, which makes it a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. He is more likely to c/r a turned improvement than to donkbet it.

True