QQ on Button

[Chairman Wood]

SB is usual tagish 20 somethingish VPIP 17%PFR 2.4ish AF. Played maybe a few hundred hands with him and have made no specific notes. This occured yesterday and I had been there I think for a couple of orbits but IIRC my image appears to be tight at the moment and I have been quiet. BB is basically the same type of player.


Eurobet 5/10 circa 10PM EST
Chairman gets Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on Button
3 folds, Chairman raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Chairman caps

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 SB or so)
SB checks, Chairman bets, SB thinks for roughly 20 seconds and then calls

Turn K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( 5 or so BB)
SB checks, Chairman Bets, SB calls

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7BB)
SB bets, Chairman Raises

I don't think SB has enough hands you beat here that call a raise to make a raise +EV. I think he only calls with hands that have you beat. I don't think he folds hands that beat you very often at all. I call. But I can be a little weak on the river.

What was your logic behind the raise?

[Drontier]

nh

[luckyharr]

Looks like your opponent is attempting the bet/fold line with a middle pair, or he hit his flush. His long decision on the flop may indicate he doesn't have a flush draw since the call would have been easy, but the pause could have been actions on other tables.

If there's value in that river raise, it's thin. This seems like the type of player who can fold 88-JJ. Hopefully he didn't hit his set with 77. I don't think you are getting called by hands you still beat. I also hope you are folding to a three-bet.

[Chairman Wood]

There are a lot of the variety of TAG type players around that have pretty stats and do some good things yet adopt lines with certain hands that they follow through till the end regardless of what cards come. I should know I am sometimes very guilty of doing this myself. I have no (yet should) specific reads on this player and he might be this type, i dunno. I would most likely see this line from a player that holds here QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77 and maybe KJs or KQs and perhaps a few variety of [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] type hands that I haven't thought of yet. But with the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] types I think I would have got a c/r. I think with the player I described above I would get a call from any of those hands above. I also might fold out the above hands but I think most of those times that he does call the raise I still have the best hand. In the ultrarare case he has Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I might get him to fold that too. Obviously I would be 3-bet from 77 and I would then fold.

Edit: I don't think I was clear enough. I believe most of the time when he has those middle pair holdings he folds. What I was trying to say is that those times that he does just call the raise (which may be few) I still have the best hand.

[Chairman Wood]

[ QUOTE ]
I also hope you are folding to a three-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I had every intention of folding to a 3-bet, good?

[luckyharr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I also hope you are folding to a three-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
I had every intention of folding to a 3-bet, good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he's thinking on level 3, yes.

And just to sum up the stream of consciousness from my last post, if he'll call with 88-JJ, then I like the river raise.

[Chairman Wood]

This is what I wanted to talk about

How often do you think I run into a type of player that will call the raise with 88-JJ?

How often do you think I will be called and get shown KJ, KQ or some other weak K?

Is there much chance he 3-bets me with a worse hand?

These are questions regarding the general TAGish population at the skins 5/10 6 max

[luckyharr]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think I run into a type of player that will call the raise with 88-JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think often you will see a TAG call that river raise with 88-JJ against players that aren't you. The more you've played with a certain TAG, the more he knows that you probably aren't capping with less than AA-TT, AK preflop. He knows you aren't raising that river with something that JJ-88 beats. He'll make that call against the LAGs. Of course, this assumes he's an observant TAG.

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think I will be called and get shown KJ, KQ or some other weak K?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like those hands would have check-raised the turn since you're probably going to showdown after preflop cap. If he's betting the river just to three-bet then why didn't he do that on the turn? It's a flush, 77, or JJ-88 I think.

[ QUOTE ]
Is there much chance he 3-bets me with a worse hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Very little. I imagine at a certain level of poker there are more players willing to raise QQ on the river like you did with the intention of folding to a three-bet. At that level, players may recognize your thin value raise and bluff you off a better hand. I don't think this is that level, though I just noticed this is Eurobet... maybe 5/10 plays like 100/200 there now. I haven't been there in a while.

[Chairman Wood]

Ty, Luckyharr