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#41
12-08-2005, 07:38 PM
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Re: When not to make a continuation bet
[ QUOTE ]
Because your FE on that board vs. him is somewhere between 0% and -5%. [/ QUOTE ] And, you don't want to be on the calling end of a checkraise with 50% equity. Being checkraised allin is bad. Being checkraised less than allin is also bad because the rest will go in on a blank turn. 
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#42
12-08-2005, 07:40 PM
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Re: When not to make a continuation bet
This flush draw + gutshot is the only one I disagree with you on. You have 40% equity in the hand based on your hand strength, you dont many folds to justify following through on the flop.
Also to some degree what kind of flops you follow through on depends on how aggresive you are. I'm more aggresive than most so I get cred more than most, so I'm more likely to check a good draw because its more likely ill be forced to fold than a lot of plaers.
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#43
12-08-2005, 07:42 PM
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Re: When not to make a continuation bet
[ QUOTE ]
Because your FE on that board vs. him is somewhere between 0% and -5%. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe so, but you're a favorite against most of his likely holdings, right? You don't need FE to be +EV getting all-in on that flop. Are you suggesting it's more +EV to check behind? I haven't done checked the numbers, but given the stack sizes I'm dubious of this ...
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#44
12-08-2005, 08:08 PM
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Re: When not to make a continuation bet
It's a double gutshot so you have 50%-ish, but I think you (I, you might not) get far more EV out of calling/raising his turn bet depending on what falls [my check behind/raise turn lines get, like, a *lot* more folds than yours do...] If I think it's a guy that will overbet 99 on the turn if I check behind as opposed to 'some donkey I've never seen', I'll bet it.
Anyway, I know MLG knows this, but to the rest of you -instead of looking at the individual flops I've listed, look at the pattern.
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