$22 on the bubble

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If the flop comes with some broadway cards, you only gave up 200 chips and you are still in good shape.

[/ QUOTE ]There will be at least one overcard about 80% of the time. So, four times you lose 200 = 800 chips. The 5th time you need to make 800 chips, there are already 700 in the pot, so you need to get an extra 100 from villian. Do you think you'll getthat much? If you bet the all unders flop, he'll probably fold unless he has a bigger pocket pair. To make up for the times that villian calls with a bigger pair, you have to have him call quite frequently when he is beat.

I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.

[trevor]

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I don't think the risk/reward is really worth it here.

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IT'S A MIN-RAISE FOR [censored]'s SAKE!

What the hell happened to playing poker? Fold pre-flop so you don't have to? This is awful, awful advice.

Given you read call the raise and, dare I say, play poker? You are giving up too much by folding. You have to make the most of marginal opportunities like this to get wins. If you want 3rd go ahead and fold it.

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Even if you hit your set, you are unlikely to stack him unless he has an overpair or TP, you don't have the implied odds here to simply play for set value.

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Making these kind of assumptions is beyond weak-tight as well as incorrect. You are getting 3:1, which is more than enough. How does he not have enough implied odds? If you happened to snag a caller in between are you folding 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

I am rarely this harsh but I cannot believe the number of people who think folding in this spot can be anywhere near correct.

[DPCondit]

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I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

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[DPCondit]

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I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.


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Ok, so we make a play on some overcard flops. Would you seriously consider folding every time an overcard flops?

[jedinite]

I hate just calling here.

You're the small blind, you've got a BB behind to act who has T1000 behind after posting a T200 big blind. With the min-raise and your call behind he's getting 5-1 to call and at least 2-1 if he pushes and is called. Assuming he's smart, you both have reasonable calling ranges and he has any FE, you both are offering him a great scenario to take this away from you if you call. Pushing from the BB there with almost any two (or calling and pushing any flop, a three-handed stop+go) has gotten me past the bubble against passive opponents many a time.

In your shoes I fold or push. If the PFR is really tight, I tend to push instead - from a typical (i.e. no 2p2 pushbot) $22 opponnent, usually the minraise is a good sign for "I'm a passive bigstack and i want to steal the blinds but don't want to risk too much". So if he's tight and in that situation you've got a lot of FE on a push.

If the short stacks are pretty weak/tight (e.g. 75% of the time), I'll fold and continue to steal from them. I don't mind the other big stack taking down these blinds, I want to combine with him to pop the bubble and take down the two shorties, with the goal of getting heads up no worse than 2-1 underdog.

[jeffraider]

With your read I don't mind folding at all. Without your read I'm either calling or pushing.

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I don't pretend to know the answer. But, it seems ot me that if you are conceding your 200 chips everytime there is an overcard, you're going to be behind when you call the min-raise. If you're going to call, it seems you must be willing to make a play on some overcard flops.


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Ok, so we make a play on some overcard flops. Would you seriously consider folding every time an overcard flops?

[/ QUOTE ]Two things:

1) No. But, I was responding to Noodleman, who assumed we'd be losing everytime an overcard came on the flop. I was trying to show that calling was bad under this assumption. That is, I was suggesting that you have to play some overcard flops if you want to call the min-raise.

2) In this bubble situation, I may be less willing to try to play "poker". I'm not an expert at SNGs or other forms of poker, but I am reasonably sure that good bubble play would be laughed at in other poker situations.

[HesseJam]

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I call and see a flop. Im not ready to commit my whole stack with 99 here.

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The problem with calling here is that the BB has not yet acted as another poster already observed. BB could easily call for another 200 to hope for a good flop or even be thinking about making a move. So, you are in atight spot here.

Apart from folding, I like reraising to 800 here. Seems to be wrong. That's right! You are risking some here. If you are getting reraised pf you had likely bet into an overpair or AK. OTH, if I were villain and had AA or KK or AK would I put you all-in? Dunno, but I would probably swing for the fences and just call.

If I get to see the flop, I would go all-in on most flops unless it contains 2 out of Q,K,A .

Or you just fold preflop.

[tigerite]

If the BB pushes and UTG folds I am calling 99 every day of the week here. Plus, the BB can't stop and go the flop, Hero acts first. Bad advice.

[jedinite]

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If the BB pushes and UTG folds I am calling 99 every day of the week here. Plus, the BB can't stop and go the flop, Hero acts first. Bad advice.

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I know that the BB can't run a traditional stop and go, but what I said is that they can call here and push almost any flop, with the obvious assumption that Hero checks. I mentioned it specifically as a three-handed stop & go with that in mind. Just because you are second to act doesn't mean you can't run the equivilant of a stop and go - if I'm the BB here I'm either pushing or occasionally calling and pushing almost any flop.

I agree about calling if the BB pushes, and certainly wasn't advocating otherwise, but a lot of people on here won't make that call. Regardless, that doesn't change that I hate flat calling here, taking this three way with a pair of nines. Odds are you've got the best hand right now, so I push. If you think the MP's min-raise plus his tightness indicates significant strength, fold.

I hate flat calling a raise on the bubble out of position, with a player to act behind. Because of the odds you're offering the BB, I believe calling in this instance is a FTP mistake.