10/20 AK preflop

[calmasahinducow]

Fold JJ and call QQ

[calmasahinducow]

Although now that I think about it, there's really no effective difference between JJ and QQ in this spot

[shant]

I was at the table and thought the fold was right. We found out over the next 50 or so hands that the capper was a huge moron who decided to give away all his money but at the time it seemed like the right move.

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm.. what they will cold cap with?

[/ QUOTE ]

We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times do you need to see them cold cap with 99 to know that they'll do it?

I'm not even saying that that makes it call, I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm.. what they will cold cap with?

[/ QUOTE ]

We will rarely have enough data, either from mining or from observation-based reads, to know the answer to this question and be able to make decisions based on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it does happen in those rare times. I can count on 1 hand how often I've made this laydown. But that is a problem with stats. It doesn't really show how often they 3 bet or cap. Though I'm also not great at reading and interpreting stats. I do better from just observing. For some, the range of hands for those raises narrows significantly.

I think Dids brought up a good point.

b

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just think it's unreasonable, not necesarily unvaluable. Let's say he'll cap with AK, AKs, AQs, AQo, AA, KK, QQ and JJ. I think this is too wide, but hopefully it will help make my point.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 20.3124 % [ 00.15 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 20.3116 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 3: 29.6600 % [ 00.26 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 29.7160 % [ 00.26 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
</pre><hr />

Take out the weaker offsuit hands for the open raiser and the AQ hands from the capper and we have this:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 17.3107 % [ 00.11 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 20.6327 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 27.1062 % [ 00.25 00.03 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 4: 34.9504 % [ 00.31 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } </pre><hr />


Tighen up the 3 bettor's range to what a guy with a PFR of 6 would probably do on a day where he was feeling frisky and we have:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.3903 % [ 00.09 00.06 ] { AKo }
Hand 2: 19.8966 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }
Hand 3: 31.3360 % [ 00.28 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 4: 33.3772 % [ 00.29 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
</pre><hr />


Combine all that with the fact that it's going to be really hard to avoid getting owned postflop and I really can't think of any reason to call.

[Dazarath]

[ QUOTE ]
Although now that I think about it, there's really no effective difference between JJ and QQ in this spot


[/ QUOTE ]
That's not true. QQ dominates AQ, but not AK. It also dominates JJ. Would you say that the different between KK and QQ is negligible as well?


[ QUOTE ]
How many times do you need to see them cold cap with 99 to know that they'll do it?

I'm not even saying that that makes it call, I just think that it's odd that you and Evan don't apparently see any value in a description of how a guy plays beyond the numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]
In general, people's raising range &gt; 3-betting range &gt; capping range. If someone has 99 in their standard cold-capping range, their PFR usually isn't 11%.

[bobbyi]

How can anything other than folding be considered [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]? You'd need some pretty strong reads to play this, certainly more than we have from those stats.

[Michael Davis]

AK is a drawing hand.

-Michael

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
AK is a drawing hand.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]
Pot odds?