Good spot to wait for the turn?

deception5 · #1 11-28-2005, 11:25 PM

Second hand at the table.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP folds, CO calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.70 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets (All-In), UTG folds, CO calls, Hero caps, CO calls $4 (All-In).

River: (20.10 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 20.10 BB

#2 11-28-2005, 11:48 PM

Would you have capped if BB wasn't all-in? I assume you're trying to extract more from CO.

In waiting for the turn, you're hoping your equity jumps way up. I don't see that happening here. Without reads, I hate this hand. I hate situations like this and probably suck at them.

I'm looking forward to seeing what people say.

jba · #3 11-28-2005, 11:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]

In waiting for the turn, you're hoping your equity jumps way up. I don't see that happening here. Without reads, I hate this hand. I hate situations like this and probably suck at them.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey PP I know we have been disagreeing a lot in these early days of SHSSSSH, and I've been drinking, but I can't think of many better situations in poker than to have JJ on an 8-high board on the turn against a couple of doofy [censored] that can't even keep a proper buyin.

a blank turn in a situation like this makes our equity go through the roof. a flush draw goes from having 35% on the flop to 18% on the turn. overcards from 23->12. all of this equity that drops lands in our lap. this situation is pretty much ideal and the cappage is a no-brainer (did you notice CO is about all-in too?)

#4 11-29-2005, 01:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hey PP I know we have been disagreeing a lot in these early days of SHSSSSH, and I've been drinking ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I was a little worried about what was coming next when I read this. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

MrWookie47 · #5 11-28-2005, 11:57 PM

This is a decent spot. That four isn't the best card for you, but it's not the worst. Considering that these guys are stacking off, you're turn play is probably fine.

Raza · #6 11-29-2005, 12:05 AM

I did a quick pokerstove simulation with somewhat generous hands for the opponents 6h7h for BB, 3s5s for UTG, Ad9d for CO.

9,885,332 games 12.063 secs 819,475 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.7500 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 20.3668 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 06.7174 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 39.1658 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { JsJh }

---

Here you have 39% equity while putting in 25% of the money if you raise the flop and get everyone to call. I think this is a decent edge, and it could be a lot higher when instead of flush draws and straight draws your opponents have 5 outers with bottom/middle pair. I'm leaning towards raising this flop. What do you guys think?

jba · #7 11-29-2005, 12:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I did a quick pokerstove simulation with somewhat generous hands for the opponents 6h7h for BB, 3s5s for UTG, Ad9d for CO.

9,885,332 games 12.063 secs 819,475 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.7500 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 20.3668 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 06.7174 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 39.1658 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { JsJh }

---

Here you have 39% equity while putting in 25% of the money if you raise the flop and get everyone to call. I think this is a decent edge, and it could be a lot higher when instead of flush draws and straight draws your opponents have 5 outers with bottom/middle pair. I'm leaning towards raising this flop. What do you guys think?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is a good start to a great analysis

if we wait until the turn we pass on the oppurtunity to buy 39% of four bets for the price of one bet so with this range we lose .56 sbs on the flop.

what you haven't analyzed is how much we gain if the turn bricks and we raise at that point.

deception5 · #8 11-29-2005, 01:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did a quick pokerstove simulation with somewhat generous hands for the opponents 6h7h for BB, 3s5s for UTG, Ad9d for CO.

9,885,332 games 12.063 secs 819,475 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.7500 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 20.3668 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 06.7174 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 39.1658 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { JsJh }

---

Here you have 39% equity while putting in 25% of the money if you raise the flop and get everyone to call. I think this is a decent edge, and it could be a lot higher when instead of flush draws and straight draws your opponents have 5 outers with bottom/middle pair. I'm leaning towards raising this flop. What do you guys think?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is a good start to a great analysis

if we wait until the turn we pass on the oppurtunity to buy 39% of four bets for the price of one bet so with this range we lose .56 sbs on the flop.

what you haven't analyzed is how much we gain if the turn bricks and we raise at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are the turn numbers for the same set of hands:

5,691,031 games 10.084 secs 564,362 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.5028 % 17.50% 00.00% { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 12.4955 % 12.50% 00.00% { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 04.9879 % 04.99% 00.00% { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 65.0138 % 65.01% 00.00% { JhJs }

deepsquat · #9 11-29-2005, 12:17 AM

With the Jh im raising the flop

SlantNGo · #10 11-29-2005, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With the Jh im raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually like raising the flop better without the Jh because then I can Bet/Fold a turn heart. With the Jh I would have to call if I get raised on a heart turn. Unless you're planning on checking behind a heart? I hope you're not.

That Jh probably only buys us 2% equity at most at this point, and a heart comes on the turn 17% of the time. Let's say you'd be raised 50% of the time on a turn heart, so 8.5% of the time you've put in an extra 1.5 BB (1 extra SB for flop raise, 1 extra BB for calling turn raise), and the increase in equity by having the Jh isn't enough to justify that.