Texas +7 v USC Natl Title Rose Bowl picks/discussion

MyTurn2Raise · #1 12-04-2005, 12:20 AM

OK...I haven't placed the bet yet, but I'm leaning heavily towards Texas +7 v USC. I'm waiting to make sure there are no injuries before the game; it's a long ways away. I'll post the full analysis later, but I want the discussion to get going already. I cannot wait for this game.

My thinking is that the Texas D will be able to stop USC a few times more than USC will stop Texas, something like a 40-38 game. My fear is Vince Young's penchant for turnovers.

MCS · #2 12-04-2005, 12:29 AM

Well, I've been thinking Texas is just as good as USC, so of course I like Texas.

The thing is, if Texas were really as good as USC, could the book really hang +7? I doubt it. So I must be wrong.

lastchance · #3 12-04-2005, 01:02 AM

I'm with both of you. Texas +7 (or Texas moneyline) looks as good as the ALDS did.

ravensfan · #4 12-04-2005, 04:35 AM

Can anyone say Miami vs. Ohio State 02? I think USC is explosive but suspect on D... they don't always look so good.... why not take Texas su? USC is pretty hyped too, with their superstars... could this be like Rams vs. Patriots?

lastsamurai · #5 12-05-2005, 02:58 AM

FYP Texas 6.5 v USC Natl Title Rose Bowl picks/discussion

USC all the way!

#6 12-06-2005, 01:44 AM

there will be lot of discussion about this game in the ensuing weeks no doubt...honestly, i will most likely not touch this game or put a very small bet on it for fun but i think USC will have little problem beating Texas...feel free to think otherwise but i don't think they're offense can be stopped...simply too strong...they'll dominate

MyTurn2Raise · #7 12-04-2005, 05:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I've been thinking Texas is just as good as USC, so of course I like Texas.

The thing is, if Texas were really as good as USC, could the book really hang +7? I doubt it. So I must be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow...that's the way I think when I pick the NFL

I'm surprised you didn't use sagarin to point out Texas is predicted as a better team here with more wins against top 30 teams.

MCS · #8 12-04-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised you didn't use sagarin to point out Texas is predicted as a better team here with more wins against top 30 teams.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sagarin is part of why I think Texas is so good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It's possible that Sagarin may break down a bit with teams that are SO dominant, because I don't know exactly how it handles margin of victory.

For one thing, does predictor consider the difference in a 49-point win and a 42-point win to be the same as a 10-point win and a 3-point win? It seems a margin of victory system needs to start having declining returns at some point.

For another thing, when you're winning by so much, whether you win by 56 or 45 is determined somewhat by how much the coach wants to run it up.

All that said, predictor has to be WAY off for this line to be right, and I have enough faith in it that I still think Texas +7 is a good bet. Even if you give USC a small home-field edge.

As an aside, I don't ever recall the top two teams being so head and shoulders above everyone else.

babigm · #9 12-04-2005, 05:25 PM

The Matchup, from an admittedly biased Texas fan:

Offense: It's hard to argue against USC having the advantage here, there really isn't much to complain about. We know this already, Leinhart, Bush, White, Jarrett, etc. Texas is no slouch either though, they've actually got a higher pts/game, and are 3rd behind USC and Texas Tech in Yards/game.

The only top 20 defense either has faced has been Ohio State (and Kansas if you go by yards, but I'm not counting them), which Texas struggled against very early in the season. The passing game has been good to both teams and so has the rushing game. Bush and White get the appropriate kudos, but don't underestimate the Texas backs either. Charles was matched stat for stat with Bush until his ankle injury, and the other 3 (!) backs have stepped up with big games as well. There's two competing unpredictible "factors", The Reggie Bush factor and the Vince Young factor. Both of them can make up for other shortcomings in the offense by themselves, so it's hard to see how nitpicking will make much of a difference.

Defense: Texas has the advantage here, but how big an advantage is really up in the air. It depends on which USC defense shows up, the UCLA one or the Fresno St. one, and how much you buy the "Pac-10 defenses look bad because the offenses are so good!" defense. Personally I don't buy it much. Texas' only let down so far has been the A&M rivalry game, and they shut down a potent Texas Tech offense. USC's offense may be good enough that it doesn't matter how good a defense is they'll score anyway, but we don't know that because they haven't faced anyone of that caliber defense yet.

Special Teams: Bush is of course scary as a return man. Texas has had three different people bust a return for a TD, and they lead the league in blocked kicks. USC gets the edge though because Texas' kicking game has been nerve racking, I think they've missed something like 8 extra points.

Coaching: The easy bet is on USC given past performance. USC probably gets the slight edge here, but I think it's closer to even then most people think. Mack Brown has completely revamped himself as a coach this year, and as someone who called for his head after 2001...and 2002...and 2003, it's really amazing how much better the play calling has been this season. They've really opened up the offense and become much less conservative, and the defense has been dominating all year. The knock has been not being able to win the big games, the close games, but since the OU loss they've done nothing but win big games and close games.

Turnovers: I think this is where USC earns the points they're getting. They're number one in turnover margin, while Texas' backs have had a case of fumblitis all year. Vince tends to throw one bad interception, and he loses the ball sometimes due to how he holds the ball on runs (though it's a lot better this year then last). If Texas keeps the turnovers low, or at least keeps the turnovers they make from hurting them too bad, they have a great shot at winning this game. This I think is the factor that will affect the outcome of the game the most overall, everything else is close enough that it could go either way.

tech · #10 12-04-2005, 02:02 AM

I expect lots of money to come in on Texas, as it did with Oklahoma last year (you will have people saying they cannot believe Texas is getting 7 points). Obviously the money flow will fluctuate depending upon how Big 12 and Pac 10 teams do in bowl games.

However, Texas has played a VERY soft schedule, largely because the Big 12 sucks this year. They are very overrated nationally IMO. My plan is to wait until closer to gametime and then bet USC.