TQs BB. Standard?

the point of that was:

first up this site in general the play is pretty bad, hands like 67o are certainly possible.

but what im showing is that i need 15% roughly to correctly value raise. If they are random im getting 22%. when we get a more accurate range for each player, i still think it would be around 18%

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Case in point:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 22.2148 % 21.04% 01.20% { QdTd }
Hand 2: 12.9288 % 11.90% 01.04% { random }
Hand 3: 12.9584 % 11.93% 01.05% { random }
Hand 4: 12.9768 % 11.94% 01.05% { random }
Hand 5: 12.9901 % 11.96% 01.04% { random }
Hand 6: 12.9789 % 11.95% 01.04% { random }
Hand 7: 12.9521 % 11.92% 01.04% { random }

Also, i feel a bloated pot here may even increase our postflop expectation as we are usually drawing to or close to the nuts and a big pot forces others to correctly call down.

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I don't think these numbers come close to estimating your preflop equtiy. Q10 is a hand that is easily dominated and if someone is limping with QJ or KQ or K10 it destroys your equity.

edited to say that DeathDonkey (and maybe others) once posted that in a really loose good game like this it is probably never that big of a mistake to raise any suited broadway from any position. So I don't think it's that big of a deal. I just think that playing these types of hands OOP might negate our preflop equity edge enough where I don't know if a raise is really +EV.

[Schwartzy61]

What are we looking at here, about 5 outs?

2 for the Ts
1.5 for the Qs
1.5 for the backdoor straight?

Perhaps discount another full out because of the flush potential?

4 outs on that board? Does that sound about right...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
but what im showing is that i need 15% roughly to correctly value raise. If they are random im getting 22%. when we get a more accurate range for each player, i still think it would be around 18%

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Firstly, I'm not even sure what % of hands villains would be needing to play before this was correct...

OOC, are all the players bad enough to play 76o or just a few?

Anyways, let's get a little closer to an accurate number please. (BTW, once you get there, I'm going to kick the snot out of it.)

Edit: but I won't do any of the things that I said I wouldn't do when I kick the snot out of it.

[Vote4Pedro]

Who says were behind on the flop?

[Schwartzy61]

Well I got about 19% and that was giving them Any two suited, any two paint cards, any two connecting cards, and any ace. That's a very wide range for all these limpers no matter how bad the players at the site are...

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think these numbers come close to estimating your preflop equtiy. Q10 is a hand that is easily dominated and if someone is limping with QJ or KQ or K10 it destroys your equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often would you say that this would happen?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 16.8630 % 15.69% 01.17% { QdTd }
Hand 2: 14.1779 % 13.05% 01.13% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 3: 14.2672 % 13.13% 01.13% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 4: 14.1690 % 13.04% 01.13% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 5: 14.2151 % 13.07% 01.14% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 6: 14.1696 % 13.03% 01.14% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 7: 12.1382 % 11.41% 00.72% { random }


that is a razor thin value raise.

so i guess it comes down to whether raising will likely improve your relative situation postflop?

[Augster]

I most likely don't raise, and then I bet out to see what happens.

You have to bet that flop, even into 17 players, and just HOPE the guy UTG raises and everyone folds for two-cold so you can play this head's up. If it's two back to me, I'd think about folding.

I will have to wait until I get home to check the STOVE for a more real range to check the EV. With all limpers, I'd say ANY suited, and any pair, any Ace, and Any two broadway. Then I'd exclude, AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK, and AQ.

By just going against RANDOM, you are giving your opponents too little credit not to play ANY TWO, and too much credit to be tricky with the top hands.

If the EV against that range is more than 14% or whatever, then I would guess a raise is in order.

Of course, your position sucks.

[Schwartzy61]

I didn't say we're behind, but is our Ts likely to be favored to hold up on that board?

And the remark was "we have to give more than two outs," so if we are behind, what outs do we have to improve to a probable best hand? I was just doing some extra work on my outs calculations...