20+2 fold AK on bubble?

[Matt R.]

I would call with the blinds this high. Another poster mentioned ICM is only slightly negative versus the worst possible ranges for villain. Since you only have 7x the BB, and villain could very well be pushing any 2 here (and if not, dominated aces are far more likely than most hands), I would call this. I would ignore a slightly negative ICM # in this case since the blinds are so huge (and you'll actually be down to 2390 if you fold this, not 2590 -- still have to post a SB).

[valenzuela]

My instinct is to fold..anyway Ill ICM this.
You have 30.6% of prize pool if you fold.
43.9% of prize pool if you win, 6.8% of the prize pool if you lose( ICM doesnt know ure all-in next hand). Soooo....
Im winning 13.3% if I win and losing 28.8% should I lose.
So if you call you basically need to win 67.8% of the time to make this profitable. Do we win 67,8% of the time...ehhh no we dont, thereby folding is correct.
For those who said being ITM isnt sure..mathematicly we make the money 91% of the time.
edit: that 91% is wrong since I didnt consider the 400 chip loss..anyway 86% is my guess.

[dcarlc]

I'm new to single table forum. What is ICM?

[nycplayer]

Independent Chip Model
see: http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

[TWINUNO]

What range do we call with here?