QQ on a coordinated board

#1 09-22-2005, 10:22 PM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

With the checks around to me, this seems to be an auto bet. bring the diamond draws along for the ride...agree?

Turn: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls.

Obviously playing this limit the vilain will have a Jack every once in a while. with the check into me i feel i need to bet again against any draws. Without getting check raised, its safe to say he doesnt have a jack.

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Easily the worst card that can fall at that point. What is the play if
A) vilain checks
B) vilain bets

Thanks for the input

Student Caine · #2 09-22-2005, 10:56 PM

Do you have any reads on MP1?

I am not a big fan of checking through on the River at .5/1 - my limited experience is that players will call you down with anything, including missed draws and give you an extra bet. I think that I would have to make an exception here - this board is just too menacing - you are looking at both overcards to your QQ, a three-flush, a three-straight...it really doesn't get worse then this. If we assume a "Milleresque" hand range for our Villain, then he would hold:

A9s-A2s, KJs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s-98s, AT, KQo-KJo, 88-22

It's really tough to narrow this down as he has not shown us anything other than a desire to call. If he has a weak hand (88-22 for instance) he obviously won't be showing aggression and if he is holding somethin nasty like KJo he could be waiting (incorrectly) for the river to check raise.

Even listing the broad hand range I have here we are at 45% equity (note this does not assume that his suited cards are diamonds - making this assumption our equity would drop even lower).

So given the above information if he checks I check through since I am looking to win 1 or lose 2. I figure I will lose two because:

If he bets I make a crying call as the pot will be giving us 9.25:1, so we only have to win 10% of the time (our odds would be 11.25:1 if we are calling his check-raise).

#3 09-22-2005, 10:59 PM

A) Check behind
B) Call and expect to lose.

I think you just have the pot odds here to make a call profitable, but most of the time you are well behind.

#4 09-22-2005, 11:08 PM

sorry about the reads. this was my 4th hand at this table. vilain had played 1. had about 10 hands on him previous. 18 vpip 0 pfr. so nothing to really go on

#5 09-22-2005, 11:48 PM

does everyone agree with the turn play? i can see reasoning why checking through would be reasonable, but would that be correct? the pot is heads up at this point

#6 09-23-2005, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
A) Check behind
B) Call and expect to lose.

I think you just have the pot odds here to make a call profitable, but most of the time you are well behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
ED ZACHARY!
And as for the turn. I play it the same.
BWWIK

tyler_cracker · #7 09-23-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
does everyone agree with the turn play? i can see reasoning why checking through would be reasonable, but would that be correct? the pot is heads up at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you need to bet this turn. You have no real reason to believe you're behind yet, you want to extract money from him now if he's drawing, and you will frequently get a free showdown if you want it.

jakbse · #8 09-23-2005, 03:06 AM

If villian bets it's an easy call. You get 9:1 on a call and expect villian to bluff more often than that.
If villian checks I would check through, the reason is that a bet would expose me to a raise which I would then have to call. As I think we are behind more than 50% of the time I think a bet is EV-

J. Stew · #9 09-23-2005, 04:28 AM

He played this hand pretty passively so if he donked the river I think we're beat. We're getting 9.25:1 on a call so we need to be sure like 89% of the time. If the Ace hadn't come I'd bet into a passive player if he checked, but since it did come and it was diamond, I might check. I'm not sure what the standard would be without reads though.

PokerSparky · #10 09-23-2005, 04:40 AM

Without a read I call a river donk. There aren't too many hands a sane villain calls the turn bet with that don't beat you by the river. A fold may be better here, but I probably have to call for my own piece of mind.

Check through if checked.