99 - gambling on the bubble?

[Isura]

I didn't think that the minraise from villain indicated too much strength. Also, with his stack size, I thought that he wouldn't feel committed and would fold all but AA-QQ. I was probably wrong in that assumption. Is this an easy fold? BTW, villain called with AK and my 9's held up.

***** Hand History for Game 2303777546 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13620150 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, July 03, 16:09:17 EDT 2005
Table Table 11658 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Dobe21 ( $2000 )
Seat 4: ponchbuddy ( $2330 )
Seat 6: angel76542 ( $1870 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $1800 )
Trny:13620150 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9d 9h ]
ponchbuddy raises [600].
angel76542 folds.
Hero is all-In [1650]

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think that the minraise from villain indicated too much strength. Also, with his stack size, I thought that he wouldn't feel committed and would fold all but AA-QQ. I was probably wrong in that assumption. Is this an easy fold? BTW, villain called with AK and my 9's held up.

***** Hand History for Game 2303777546 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:13620150 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Sunday, July 03, 16:09:17 EDT 2005
Table Table 11658 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Dobe21 ( $2000 )
Seat 4: ponchbuddy ( $2330 )
Seat 6: angel76542 ( $1870 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $1800 )
Trny:13620150 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9d 9h ]
ponchbuddy raises [600].
angel76542 folds.
Hero is all-In [1650]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an easy push! Who cares if he had AK and called? Heck even if he showed you AK you should push here!

[Roman]

ummm someone is a little too tight around the bubble.... easiest push ever.

[Matt R.]

With the blinds this high, there'd have to be two all-ins before me for me to think about letting this one go.

[microbet]

This is not so clear cut. You have to think he has a good chance of folding or has a bad hand. If you knew he had AK, it would be a very clear fold.

If he's gonna call, you really need to see one card less than or equal to 9.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not so clear cut. You have to think he has a good chance of folding or has a bad hand. If you knew he had AK, it would be a very clear fold.

If he's gonna call, you really need to see one card less than or equal to 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't think it was an obvious push. The problem I see with pushing is that, at the 11s, even a mediocre hand like AT or QJ is probably calling a push. It's clearly correct to fold if he shows me AK since I'm much better than 50/50 to be ITM by folding with 2000 chips, did I get that right?

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't think it was an obvious push. The problem I see with pushing is that, at the 11s, even a mediocre hand like AT or QJ is probably calling a push. It's clearly correct to fold if he shows me AK since I'm much better than 50/50 to be ITM by folding with 2000 chips, did I get that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You are correct that you're more likely in the money, but if you call and win (which you are a favorite to over AK), you have a much higher chance of finishing 1st. Since the prize structure is weighted toward 1st, you're giving up a lot of potential equity by folding.

[Costanza]

I think you're at least on the right track. Emphasize think, there, because I'm still learning this concept myself.

In this specific case it's not so much that you're better than 50/50 to get ITM as that you're only 50/50 to win with 99 v AK. Winning the hand would more than double your stack, but the same can't be said for your tournament equity.

Microbet is right here. Unless you think he'll fold to an all-in you need something like QQ+ to call here. If you put him on AK you need KK+ to make a call profitable.

[microbet]

Gonna have to do better than that. Because this is a tournament you need to "play for first" less than you would if it weren't a tournament. In cash games winner takes all. In the standard payout the winner takes less.

If you fold and BB folds your $EV is .223.

If you reraise, BB folds, he calls and you win, your $EV is .370.

Same thing - you lose = 0.

.370x = .223

x = .602

So you need to win 60% of the time.

99 is a 55% favorite over AK.

What is being left out? Sometimes if you fold, BB will call. This will make calling worse.

This is all by ICM. If you don't want to use ICM, that's fine, but you can't assume winning this hand guarantees 1st place. You have to guess how likely you are to get each place if you fold vs. call.

Just to be clear, this is not directly in response to the OP, but on the assumption that he has AK and that he will not fold (or pushed in the first place). I think that is fair, since we were talking about whether you want to go up against AK here. Of course, the possibility that he will fold is important to the OP.

[LuvDemNutz]

What is ICM?