How to play flush draws.

[zkzkz]

In NL on the button with everyone else folded against an opponent I expect will fold to any bet after the scare card comes (if it comes).

Naively the flush draw needs only about 2:1 pot odds to make calling ok. But I find whenever the turn comes down offsuit my opponent figures out that his first bet was wimpy and puts down one I can't call for the river.

So given that you won't always get to see the river, what kind of pot odds would you want to see before calling a bet on a flush draw (if you don't expect to be able to get any more money in the pot if you hit)?

Should I just assume I won't see the river and play it as a 4:1 draw? Somewhere in-between?

[valejo]

You're right, in NL draws are worth less because opponents can size their bets to give you incorrect odds to call. When calculating pot odds, it is often correct to assume you will only get to see the turn. So, if you have 9 outs to the best hand, you have the odds to call a bet less than 1/5th the size of the pot.

Sometimes you have more information that you can use to make this decision. Is the bettor passive? Does he sometimes slow down on the turn when he has a caller on his flop bet? There is some value in the possibility that you will get to see the river cheaply. If there is a third of a chance the turn will get checked to you if it is a blank, it is worth about 3 outs in the above example and you might call a bet 1/4 the size of the pot.

This kind of thinking can get you in trouble, but can help you maximize EV if you use it appropriately, I think. Thoughts?

[Blackjack]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right, in NL draws are worth less because opponents can size their bets to give you incorrect odds to call. When calculating pot odds, it is often correct to assume you will only get to see the turn. So, if you have 9 outs to the best hand, you have the odds to call a bet less than 1/5th the size of the pot.

Sometimes you have more information that you can use to make this decision. Is the bettor passive? Does he sometimes slow down on the turn when he has a caller on his flop bet? There is some value in the possibility that you will get to see the river cheaply. If there is a third of a chance the turn will get checked to you if it is a blank, it is worth about 3 outs in the above example and you might call a bet 1/4 the size of the pot.

This kind of thinking can get you in trouble, but can help you maximize EV if you use it appropriately, I think. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you explained an incredibly general question pretty well for NL - but as in poker it depends upon your opponents. You'd be better off buying a book or asking a specific question like how to play flush draws out of position against a maniac etc..

People aren't going to write a guide for you here.

Blackjack

[valejo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you explained an incredibly general question pretty well for NL - but as in poker it depends upon your opponents. You'd be better off buying a book or asking a specific question like how to play flush draws out of position against a maniac etc..

People aren't going to write a guide for you here.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. I should have written a giant "it depends" disclaimer.

[willthethrill]

it depends on the player but perhaps if u reraise him off the flop he wont raise on the turn and u get to see the river

[zkzkz]

Well sure, I wasn't looking for a guide. I was just wondering whether people had a rule they generally followed all else being equal. Do you just calculate your outs as if you're only going to see the turn? Or do you figure you get to see the river some percentage of the time?

Actually I'm pretty happy with the answer I got. Thanks all.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Well sure, I wasn't looking for a guide. I was just wondering whether people had a rule they generally followed all else being equal. Do you just calculate your outs as if you're only going to see the turn? Or do you figure you get to see the river some percentage of the time?

Actually I'm pretty happy with the answer I got. Thanks all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you can only calculate for the one card because the pot odds are based on the bet you need to call, and the current amt in the pot. (Remember, you may have more outs than 9, if you have a read on what your opponent is betting (top pair), and you have overs). Yes, I agree with another poster, sometimes a semi bluff raise will get you that free look at the river. And, you get into implied odds territory if you look past the current pot odds decision you are faced with. I think. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[zkzkz]

Actually I can recast my question:

In my limited experience it seems people often let me see the turn and then get aggressive and push me off the pot before the river. Therefore based on my limited experience it seems I should only call on the flop if I'm getting 4:1 pot odds.

Does that limited experience agree with other people's? Or based on your more extensive experience am I seeing a skewed sample and I should expect some, half, or even most people to let me see the river?

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]

Does that limited experience agree with other people's? Or based on your more extensive experience am I seeing a skewed sample and I should expect some, half, or even most people to let me see the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

A good player, who has say TPTK, with a flush and straight draw on the board, will bet an amount, that if the other player calls with a draw, is getting incorrect odds to call. This is forcing your opponent into making a mistake. And that's one of the edges a good player has over a bad player. Even if the drawing player makes the call, makes his hand, and wins the pot, the good player still wins in the long run. So, you should seldom get to see the turn, much less the river, if you are on a draw against better players. The fish don't understand the concept of pot odds, and will bet $2 into a $10 pot, giving you the odds to call on your draw. So, it really depends on who your opponents are.