Testing ICM -- some questions for discussion

[eastbay]

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As a lawyer, I'm continually surprised by how much information you can get by simply asking. Assume that an online site were willing to assist. What and how much information would you be looking for?

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The size of the blinds at the time the match gets to be HU seems like it would be a relevant factor.

One issue that interests me about the data collection is how many data points one should take from each tournament. Let's say I play 20 hands heads up against my opponent; should we use this as 20 data points? My gut feeling is no, we shouldn't, because any deviations from average behavior become magnified.

As an oversimplified, unrealistic example of what I'm talking about, say I get heads up with blinds of 100, my stack being 2000, villain's stack being 8000. Now let's say he's ridiculously tight, so tight, in fact, that he'll fold anything but aces. Now I should win this just about all of the time, and so I'm going to skew the data horrendously if you take multiple data points from this tournament that show my small stack overcoming a major disadvantage and winning.

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Intuitively I agree that only one data point is permissible on independence of observations grounds. I'm not sure how to prove it, but I'm not sure that it needs proving.

eastbay