Enough Outs to call? (outs to straight, flush, etc.)

[wilcs18]

-Playin PP Omaha Hi PL $25. Sitting on the button, dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I have $26.38

-After 2 pre flop calls, I call, small blind calls big blind checks. ($1.50 in pot)

-flop 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked to me, I bet 1.45, 1 caller.

-Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
checked to me, i bet 4.20, villain raises to 16.50
-I call
-River 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] villain bets 8 i call all in

Villain shows 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so a straight, two to 6

Obviously I thought I was beat on the turn, but I felt like the outs were so numerous that I should call the re-raise, especially based on some prior hands with player. BUT WAS IT ENOUGH OUTS, WAS IT A BAD CALL? Once i was beat on the river i sort of called out of spite and hope of winning. Tilt was definitely at it's finest.

PLEASE GIVE ADVICE I NEED IT. BUT ONLY IF YOU SINCERELY KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

[joewatch]

This is a basic math problem. Your only clean outs are 2 aces, 2 twos and 8 clubs. So you have 12 outs, which means you are 26% to make this hand. So you must have at least 3:1 pot odds to make this +EV. Does that answer your question?

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a basic math problem. Your only clean outs are 2 aces, 2 twos and 8 clubs. So you have 12 outs, which means you are 26% to make this hand. So you must have at least 3:1 pot odds to make this +EV. Does that answer your question?

[/ QUOTE ]

What would the point be of converting from card outs (odds) to percentages back to odds again?

If you're doing this you're giving yourself a whole lot of extra work.

If you have 12 outs, there are 42 unknown cards in the deck (assuming you know the 2 cards your opponent beats you with) so you are a 2.5-1 dog

Your implied odds are almost always more important than your current pot odds however.

Assuming that he wasn't bluffing the turn, you had 12 outs : AA, 22, 8 clubs (not counting the 2 of clubs). You can't count the 5s.

Now assuming he has none of your outs and holds 75xx, you have AT BEST a 12/40 chance of hitting the river or 30%. If we allow his hand to include your outs, your chance of hitting falls to 12/44 or 27.5%.

Your call was 12.30 to build the pot to about $35.30. Your bet was therefore 12.3/35.3 or 34.5%, so no you didn't have the pot odds to call. The 7% gap here is pretty big to be made up by implied or bluff odds (at least at these limits).

edit: fixed silly math error

OK, let's look at implied odds.

Let's say your opponent has an x% chance of calling your last $8 on the river if you hit. Furthermore, assume that you'll fold if you miss and he bets. What does x have to be for you to break even?

out of 44 possible river cards:
32 miss you and you lose $12.3 (relative to your decision point on the turn)
12 hit you. When he calls you gain $23 + $8 (pot size after his raise plus his call) for +$31. When he folds you gain +$23. Here's the math:

32(-12.3) + 12(31)x + 12(23)(1-x) >= 0

after simplifying ...

x >= 1.23

So he has to call your river bet 123%, or more, of the time to make the scenario break even.

IOW, you really gotta hope he's bluffing, which I feel is really rare here.

[benkahuna]

I'd reply, but I don't sincerely know what I'm talking about. Maybe I'll try again tomorrow.