Good spot to wait for the turn?

[ QUOTE ]
In waiting for the turn, you're hoping your equity jumps way up. I don't see that happening here. Without reads, I hate this hand. I hate situations like this and probably suck at them.

[/ QUOTE ]

we wanted a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn and got more than we asked for

[B Dids]

Nobody is folding the flop, given that they've all called and you're last to act. Trap them for a SB you know you're getting now instead of not getting it later if they fold to the guy's bet on the turn (which they do a lot).

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did a quick pokerstove simulation with somewhat generous hands for the opponents 6h7h for BB, 3s5s for UTG, Ad9d for CO.

9,885,332 games 12.063 secs 819,475 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.7500 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 20.3668 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 06.7174 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 39.1658 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { JsJh }


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Here you have 39% equity while putting in 25% of the money if you raise the flop and get everyone to call. I think this is a decent edge, and it could be a lot higher when instead of flush draws and straight draws your opponents have 5 outers with bottom/middle pair. I'm leaning towards raising this flop. What do you guys think?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is a good start to a great analysis

if we wait until the turn we pass on the oppurtunity to buy 39% of four bets for the price of one bet so with this range we lose .56 sbs on the flop.

what you haven't analyzed is how much we gain if the turn bricks and we raise at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here are the turn numbers for the same set of hands:

5,691,031 games 10.084 secs 564,362 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.5028 % 17.50% 00.00% { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 12.4955 % 12.50% 00.00% { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 04.9879 % 04.99% 00.00% { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 65.0138 % 65.01% 00.00% { JhJs }

[ QUOTE ]
hey PP I know we have been disagreeing a lot in these early days of SHSSSSH, and I've been drinking ...

[/ QUOTE ]

I was a little worried about what was coming next when I read this. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[SlantNGo]

I think I'd just raise the flop here. This hand is probably getting checked to you on the turn too often without a read on BB, so I think we raise the flop here for immediate value.

With that being said, I can count 21 "scare" cards for us at this point, any A/K/Q, any heart, two 9s, so that part of the criteria for waiting until the turn is met. If I knew BB would bet a turn blank, or even better, if after BB checked, CO would bet a turn blank, I think I would wait till the turn.

The other benefit to raising the flop in situations like these is that it gets us to a cheap showdown often when an overcard comes on the turn. If you just call the flop, and overcard comes, you're paying another 2 BB, so 2.5 BB total from the flop to SD. If you raise the flop, you bet the turn despite the overcard (you can fold to a raise, right?), then check behind on the river and see the showdown for 2 BB total.

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
With the Jh im raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually like raising the flop better without the Jh because then I can Bet/Fold a turn heart. With the Jh I would have to call if I get raised on a heart turn. Unless you're planning on checking behind a heart? I hope you're not.

That Jh probably only buys us 2% equity at most at this point, and a heart comes on the turn 17% of the time. Let's say you'd be raised 50% of the time on a turn heart, so 8.5% of the time you've put in an extra 1.5 BB (1 extra SB for flop raise, 1 extra BB for calling turn raise), and the increase in equity by having the Jh isn't enough to justify that.

[deepsquat]

No im betting a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn if i raise the flop. I just think this hand is alot easier to play if we raise the flop. How are you going to play a Q or K turn if lead into again?

Im not a huge fan of waiting for the turn to raise except on monotone flops or perhaps with 4 or 5 others in the hand.

In all honesty i dont think it really matters in terms of EV in this hand, but it would make the turn and river easier to play imo.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody is folding the flop, given that they've all called and you're last to act. Trap them for a SB you know you're getting now instead of not getting it later if they fold to the guy's bet on the turn (which they do a lot).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree they won't fold it. This is where I thought it was interesting.

The person who lead the flop happened to be the player directly to my left and would be first to act on the turn. There's a very good chance he bets again whether he has a flush draw or a made hand since there was no resistance (a flush draw will usually bet since they are planning to call a bet anyway). He will usually put CO and I on overs and trapping the field for a BB when I'm a huge favorite would be a great victory (since flush draws and overs are drawing much thinner on the turn). Raising and trapping the field for another BB would hugely profitable. They are getting upwards of 8.7:1 to call a turn bet so any playable hand is not folding for one more (and if BB doesn't reraise they are getting better odds to call a second one).

Another thought, if I do raise the flop, the rest of the hand plays differently. The turn is often checked to me and I get check/raised often when someone makes the flush or hits their overpair (unless BB hits the flush in which case he may lead again). Gone are my chances of multiple big bets on the turn when I have the best hand.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
No im betting a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn if i raise the flop. I just think this hand is alot easier to play if we raise the flop. How are you going to play a Q or K turn if lead into again?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is the problem with raising the flop. I bloat the pot on the flop when I'm not a huge favorite. If a K or Q comes on the turn I am in a more diffucult spot when I raised the flop because I'll often be setting my opponents up for check/raises.

[ QUOTE ]
In all honesty i dont think it really matters in terms of EV in this hand, but it would make the turn and river easier to play imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think it can make a significant change in EV here. Raising the flop often gets 3 more SB's of my opponents money in the pot but may make them fold the turn. By waiting I'll make up more of that difference if just one person calls the turn who would have folded. And I have the potential to make several more BB's. I think raising the flop puts me in a more awkward situation on the turn since I'll feel like I have to continue. By just calling the flop I'll often be closing the turn action (and also getting a better idea of CO's holding).

[damaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody is folding the flop, given that they've all called and you're last to act. Trap them for a SB you know you're getting now instead of not getting it later if they fold to the guy's bet on the turn (which they do a lot).

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition, people will freeze up on a lot of turn cards, an A or a heart or anything that beats them, even when it doesn't beat you, they go into c/c mode which causes you to miss out on the extra bet. I'd be more inclined when there are fewer scare cards out there (for the other players).