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  #1  
Old 12-22-2005, 08:55 PM
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Default Is this river play bad?

Villain is slightly loose/passive 25/7/0.66

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (3.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (1.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds.

River: (3.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB
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  #2  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:16 PM
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

Um, what was your plan on the river if you got reraised? If your plan was to fold, then you should have just called the donk bet. Based on his numbers and the size of the pot I would have folded to the donk bet.
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  #3  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:20 PM
HouseCalls HouseCalls is offline
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

The fold is not that bad but if you were going to fold to a reraise then your raise is pretty awful. Your raise has essentially no +EV against a reasonable opponent (especially with the 3 flush on the board). When you raise if you are behind he will call - or worse as in this case - raise. If you are ahead he will fold. There is almost no way you will gain a bet by raising and if you were ahead here you lost 5.75 BB by folding [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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  #4  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:23 PM
moose47 moose47 is offline
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

The amount of times I am folding a set on that board at this limit is approximately never. That said, if your sample size is sufficient and you are sure he is as passive as the numbers indicate then I would just call the river.
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  #5  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:23 PM
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

Yes very bay.
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  #6  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:30 PM
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

[ QUOTE ]
If you are ahead he will fold. There is almost no way you will gain a bet by raising and if you were ahead here you lost 5.75 BB by folding [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

What about if the villain has 2 pair? Wouldnt he call a raise?
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  #7  
Old 12-22-2005, 09:43 PM
HouseCalls HouseCalls is offline
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

I suppose it is true he could have hit 2 pair, and maybe he would call with two pair even with a flush draw on the board but if so this would be rare . Overall I still think that when you factor in the risk of a reraise (which happened here) a raise in this spot has -EV
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  #8  
Old 12-22-2005, 10:53 PM
Eric Milas Eric Milas is offline
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

This is an automatic call. No way I am folding this here.
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  #9  
Old 12-23-2005, 02:52 AM
DCWildcat DCWildcat is offline
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Default Re: Is this river play bad?

[ QUOTE ]
What about if the villain has 2 pair? Wouldnt he call a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

He would. But the only possible 2 pair he has here, given his stats, is JT. That makes it less likely than normal that he's got two pair; I think I call the river. Very rarely will I fold sets for one bet.
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