Big draw OOP against a possible steal

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I read bad. Still, bet the flop.

I don't know where this idea that a typical 1/2 player in MP is going to raise the flop with QJ came from either. Putting a limper on a hand w/out a read is pretty much useless.

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Yes, if there was a preflop raiser, I bet this all day everyday.

I'm pretty sure that HE4AP mentions something about the increased likelyhood of Qx, Jx top pairs in an unraised pot.

All I'm saying is this:

If you get one caller - your bet has no value. Are you going to now follow up on the turn?

If you get two or more callers - you should have c\r for value.

So the only value a bet on this flop has, is if there is a descent chance at picking up the pot.

I admit that this board is very condusive to picking up the pot (two little, one big) but expecting to pick up a pot with a single donk bet into 4 players is very, very rarely a wise play.

By making this play, I'm expecting to get snapped a lot. When this happens, the times when I have a good shot at picking up the pot on a semi bluff, I'm more likely to get called.

Aggression and semi bluffing are great (necessary) strategies. I think there are better places for them than this spot.


BTW. All I was saying with the c\r>flop donk is:
If you wanted to seriously take this pot down without seeing the river - that would be the best way.

[TheMainEvent]

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Do you really think my J outs are usually dead though?

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I wouldn't say 'dead' but they're not clean enough to weigh very much. The parlay of CO having nothing, none of the other passive donks having a Q or J, or no overcards like an A or K falling on the river to outdraw you when you do hit a J - all of these things don't make your J outs good "more often than not". It doesn't really matter though - either way a flop C/R is worst than C/C, which is worse than B/C.
You're playing this hand for the flush.

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I agree with you in regards to the flop play. However, once the pot goes from 5-way to heads up I think I need to reevaluate.

[shant]

Why are we putting a bunch of limpers on a Qx hand on a Qxx flop? Why would someone with Jx call you on this flop with no draw and no pair and an overcard out?

If the flop gets checked through, you shouldn't be too happy because you're putting yourself into a close decision on the turn where you might be only getting 3-1 to call a turn bet.

Also, why do you underestimate that people will fold in an unraised pot with a pretty drawless board?

I think checkraising is a bad plan since you can't count on anyone to bet. Also, checkraising and then check-calling the turn allows your opponent to play their hand perfectly.

[jrz1972]

I bet this flop too, and to be honest I don't really care much what happens after I lead off.

If I get called by 2+ players, my bet was for value and I'm happy.

If I get called by only one player, I am leading any turn card and I fully expect to pick up this pot often enough to make this +EV.

If I get called by zero players, it's all good.

If I get raised, I can either call (most likely on this board) or reraise if I think I can get callers.

The only bad scenario for me is if the guy to my immediate left raises and drives everybody else out. Admittedly, that sucks, but every other possible scenario is good for me.

This hand is actually a good illustration of why I don't like checking these hands OOP. On a ragged board like this against passives, it's very predictable that it gets checked around to the bozo on the button who takes a stab at the pot, and now what can I do? I can't raise for value without driving everyone else out, and I have no fold equity. The only slim advantage here is the possibility of check-raising if I hit my draw, but I've already forfeited some value bets to get myself into this position.

[McGahee]

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I agree with you in regards to the flop play. However, once the pot goes from 5-way to heads up I think I need to reevaluate.

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I agree - so check the turn. There's no rule that says you can't do that after betting the flop.

[milesdyson]

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If you get two or more callers - you should have c\r for value.

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someone has to bet for this to happen. just because they call does not mean they will bet. however, if you bet, you'll likely get those callers.

there have been some threads lately where i've suggested checking a flopped flush draw or oesd. i remember specifically in the TJ on a KQx flop thread, i said if i were to act first in a 5-way field, i would bet that hand.

well here we are, 5-way, first to act with a draw of similar strength. in this hand there is even less chance of being raised on the flop, so betting looks even better.

you can't only bet made hands...

[McGahee]

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If you get one caller - your bet has no value. Are you going to now follow up on the turn?

If you get two or more callers - you should have c\r for value.

So the only value a bet on this flop has, is if there is a descent chance at picking up the pot.


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It's not as easy as: "I got 2 callers by betting, so I should've C/R'd and gotten 2 callers". You don't know where the bet is going to come from, or if anybody will bet. If the bet comes from your right and you C/R, you're just making it more likely to get it H/U on the turn than if you had just bet yourself.

[TheMainEvent]

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I agree with you in regards to the flop play. However, once the pot goes from 5-way to heads up I think I need to reevaluate.

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I agree - so check the turn. There's no rule that says you can't do that after betting the flop.

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With the intention of calling or raising? The issue I'm getting at is this: I know where I'm at on the turn, but my opponent very likely doesn't know where he is at. I know I'm behind, and I know it very likely isn't by that much (in terms of equity). Isn't it worth it to risk a small mistake (putting in multiple bets on the turn as a slight underdog) to potentially induce a big mistake on my opponent's part? If I didn't pick up the OESD I would say that my equity is so low that I lose too much by putting in 2 (or possibly 3) bets on the turn, but I think the FE makes it worthwhile for me to try a c/r in this case.

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Why are we putting a bunch of limpers on a Qx hand on a Qxx flop? Why would someone with Jx call you on this flop with no draw and no pair and an overcard out?

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By saying this, are you agreeing with me that any callers have Hero in bad shape?

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If the flop gets checked through, you shouldn't be too happy because you're putting yourself into a close decision on the turn where you might be only getting 3-1 to call a turn bet.

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I'm going to be very happy. I don't know why you wouldn't be.

The only situation that would make me unhappy, is if had Hero bet, he gets 3 callers, followed by a LP raise, Hero 3bets and everyone calls.

EV of bet\3betting =
(.35*12) - 3 = 1.2

EV of being granted equity for free =
(.19*5.5) - 0 = 1.045

Even if this bet\3bet occurred - you may have missed an opportunity to c\r\cap.

I'm definitely not making a -EV bet on the flop to make calling the turn correct. If I don't have the odds to call...I'm not calling.

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Also, why do you underestimate that people will fold in an unraised pot with a pretty drawless board?

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This is the biggest sticking point for me. I must be severely underestimating the chance that everyone folds.

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I think checkraising is a bad plan since you can't count on anyone to bet.

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Once again, I'm not unhappy if nobody does.

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Also, checkraising and then check-calling the turn allows your opponent to play their hand perfectly.

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I only advocate this line with >2 villians. In which case, Hero plays his hand perfectly. It's one of the villians who is losing money (unless one has a higher flush draw).


I don't know if my EV calculations are correct, but they're on the right track (I'm still waiting for Yao's book).

If anyone can do the full EV calculations I think we'd all benefit. I also think that someone is going to be very surprised at the frequency we require all opponents to fold for this bet to be +EV.

You get two callers and you're getting 2-1 on your money.

You get 1 caller, a bet on Turn may win pot.

You get no callers, you take home the bacon.