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#1
11-15-2005, 03:59 PM
 wizard Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: AZ Posts: 9

You are now playing for 1st and 2nd in a Full Tilt multi. 1st is about 950 and 2nd is around 650. Your opponent has played sound but is probably a little passive. You have just doubled up twice and have around 100K to his 150K with the blinds at 2000-4000 + antes.

You are 1st to act on the button and get AT clubs and raise to 16000 and get called. The Flop looks pretty good with Qc, 9c and a small red card. To your surprise, your opponent bets out for 25000 onto a pot of about 35000.

Based on his prior passive play there is no doubt in my mind that he has a Q and will not lay down his hand. For this reason, I chose to call but wonder if fold might have been better.

The turn was a red 8 so I have improved my outs from a probable 12 to a probable 15. My opponent now decides to push.

What now?

Results are not important but will follow for the curious.
#2
11-15-2005, 04:04 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a

Calculate pot odds and see if you have the rights odds to call...probably not, maybe just wait for the next hand?

Then again, you're in the money already, so if you "lose" you really won already from the sounds of it.

And I'm curious what the outcome was. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
#3
11-15-2005, 04:15 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a

Pokerstove:

AcTc v Q2o+ or Q2s+ on board of Qc9c3h

you are a 44 to 56 underdog. If you are sure he has a Q and will not fold to a raise, u should fold, unless implied odds/how sure you are he'll go to the end for all his cash determines otherwise

Turn card: 8d

You are a 31 to 68 underdog. If you called on flop, do you now have more than say 2.2 - 1 pot odds. If so, call and pray.
#4
11-15-2005, 04:27 PM
 jcm4ccc Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 116

The way you have phrased this question makes it an easy odds question:

Calling on the flop. You need to call for 25000 to win a pot of 60000. You seem to have twelve outs, but it's probably good to knock that down by 1 (you will not always win if an Ace hits). Your odds are 3.2:1. You are getting less than 2.5 on your money. The call is not good.

You could have pushed on the flop. With 11 outs, your odds are 1.4:1 of hitting your hand by the river. That's pretty good. You also have some folding equity (Your opponent will have to call a 60K bet to win 120K, I think, which is some folding equity but not a lot--he won't fold if he has a queen, as you seem to think). If you fold, you have 84K to his 185K. I think pushing is preferable to folding.

Once you call the flop bet, I think you are pretty much pot committed. You don't want to call off 40% of your stack and then fold. Call the push.
#5
11-15-2005, 05:38 PM
 schwza Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 113

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerstove:

AcTc v Q2o+ or Q2s+ on board of Qc9c3h

you are a 44 to 56 underdog. If you are sure he has a Q and will not fold to a raise, u should fold,

[/ QUOTE ]

pushing is better than folding, even if you assume he has a Q and will not fold. the pot is 35k. if he won't fold, it's essentially an 83k push to you. villain is more likely to have AQ than other Q's, so say you're actually a 42-58 dog. that's almost exactly the pot equity you need to make this a breakeven chipEV push (you need 41.2%).

but here's the thing - there's no way his range is that tight. even if it is that tight, there's no way that OP has played enough HU with this guy to know. because things chance HU, and there's some chance villain is leading out with a flush draw, and if you fold then, you're making a bad mistake. you're way overestimating the accuracy with which you can put him on a hand. trust me.

whether calling is better than pushing isn't really clear. if you're pretty confident that he has a Q, it's probably better to call because he'll have to pay you off. if he's so tight that he won't pay you off if the flush gets there, then you should be running him over.
#6
11-15-2005, 06:53 PM
 wizard Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: AZ Posts: 9
Re: Are the right odds enough?

This is the reason for my post. There is no question that the right odds exist for a call. (I don't believe any fold equity exists) Is it worth a call for all your chips when playing for 1st and 2nd when you "know" that you are behind?
#7
11-15-2005, 06:55 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a

I don't believe that you know he won't fold. HU, you should basically push this against any opponent because you're about 50/50 in the pot if you get to see the turn and river and you ALWAYS have at least a little fold equity.
#8
11-15-2005, 07:03 PM
 schwza Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 113
Re: Are the right odds enough?

[ QUOTE ]
(I don't believe any fold equity exists) Is it worth a call for all your chips when playing for 1st and 2nd when you "know" that you are behind?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not a call for all your chips - it would be a push for all your chips. if you're 100% positive that he'll call a push and he'll have a Q, it's close enough that you could go either way. except, if you're 100% sure that he has a Q just because he led out after calling your raise, then he's obviously completely terrible or you're psychic and you should avoid playing any huge pots where you're not a big favorite.

calling may still be better than folding, depending on how often he pays you off if a Q/A hits, and whether you can push him out if some other scare card (like a K) hits.
#9
11-16-2005, 12:38 AM
 wizard Junior Member Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: AZ Posts: 9
Re: Results

I believe that the call, based on my read, was wrong and I should have folded to the first bet before the turn. After calling and getting a blank on the turn, I felt committed and also went all in with my 15 outer. A blank hit and my opponent has the trophy. He had a KQ off. Two Dimes says that I'm a 53.5 to 46.5 dog after the flop and a 66 to 34 dog after the turn. Even if I have the odds, I believe I should try and get my chips in when I am in the lead. Draws are good for rign games or in the first few tourney rounds when the stacks are still deep but not for all the marbles. Thanks for the comments, observations and help.

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