simple value bet/semibluff/free showdown situation

TheMainEvent · #1 11-14-2005, 04:36 AM

Interested in comments on all streets

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Aaron_ · #2 11-14-2005, 04:57 AM

I like calling the flop because UTG will protect for you against 7 outs or worse on the turn. But I'd really hate to find out that UTG has me beat on the turn and end up paying 3 big bets for it. Since the board isn't very scary anyway (and you probably don't have to worry about any more than 5-outers for UTG+1 and MP1), I'd rather raise the flop, and reevaluate the turn (probably bet if it's checked around to you).

I don't know what I'm talking about anyway - anyone else want to chime in?

Shillx · #3 11-14-2005, 05:09 AM

These are the types of posts that I enjoy since they are pure theory. First off, let me say that your turn and river play is bad. In order to make a raise on the turn, one or more of the following must be true...

1) The raise is for value -- While this might or might not be the case here, if we are raising the turn for value we need to bet the river for value as well.

2) The raise is to get a hand to fold that shouldn't fold if they know what we have -- This isn't the case here either. The raise has to be able to get a better hand to fold (like QJ) or it has to make hands like QT (that have tons of outs) go away. Note that it doesn't have to work anywhere near 100% of the time to make it correct. In this case, no better hand will ever fold and it is very doubtful that he holds a hand worthy of folding that has tons of outs against us. This raise tends to work better in big pots where wrong folds can be very costly.

So if you raise the turn with both Jx and Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it will cause havok for your opponent. If he has something like a pair of 8's, it puts him in a very tough spot since you are playing as game theory would suggest. If he folds, he is sometimes tossing in the best hand. If he calls, he is oftentimes paying you off. The key to this play is that you have to bet the river when you have Jx (and then sometimes bet the river when you have nothing). By checking the river, you make it much easier for him since he is essentially risking one more BB to win 7.75 BB. By betting the river you charge him 2 to win 8.75 when you have the best hand, and you oftentimes don't have to put in that last best when you bust since you are last to act. As you played it, it becomes far more correct for him to call the turn raise since you will give him a free showdown.

Brad

Edit - This post doesn't read well. I hope it makes sense. Too tired to post.

#4 11-14-2005, 05:54 AM

I would just call the turn but I really like the river check. You don't beat many jacks, so he's gotta have like A8s for you to win.

nomadtla · #5 11-14-2005, 06:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Edit - This post doesn't read well. I hope it makes sense. Too tired to post.

[/ QUOTE ]

It may not read well but it's going in my favorites as I need to work on my turn play and this is gold (as usual)

Shillx · #6 11-14-2005, 07:08 AM

There is also a 3rd case in which you should make this play. It is when someone will give up on the river if you just call the turn. Most people are not like this though and IMO you should not assume that an unknown will bluff-bluff-check/fold (or semibluff). Against better players you have to get that value raise in on 4th street since good players tend to check the river in these spots. They will usually check with the intention of raising or folding so it is tough to value from the busted draw on the end unless they play back with nothing.

#7 11-14-2005, 07:53 AM

Dont quite understand the flop bet to turn 3bet. I would switch the sequence around. I would also bet the river.

rgb · #8 11-14-2005, 10:44 AM

Shillx

I must admit some of your post is over my head somewhat but can't hero's action be justified as a classic free showdown play with an OK hand that has outs to a strong hand?

Hero raises the turn to get a free showdown. So it still costs him the same when he misses his FD (check behind) but earns him more when he hits a diamond river (bet).

rgb

#9 11-14-2005, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Shillx

I must admit some of your post is over my head somewhat but can't hero's action be justified as a classic free showdown play with an OK hand that has outs to a strong hand?

Hero raises the turn to get a free showdown. So it still costs him the same when he misses his FD (check behind) but earns him more when he hits a diamond river (bet).

rgb

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i wanted to just type nh but didnt wanna disagree with shillx haha. if this is still up tmr i will do a more thorough analysis and post it up....

seems pretty textbook to me, and with vils likely risk aversity it seems to limit potential errors somewhat.

(im still trying to understand entirely what you wrote shillx)

adsman · #10 11-14-2005, 12:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Hero raises the turn to get a free showdown. So it still costs him the same when he misses his FD (check behind) but earns him more when he hits a diamond river (bet).

rgb

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that if you hit your flush that villian is going to call your bet on the river. I have the impression that hero is behind on the turn and he isn't folding anyone with a raise, as shillx correctly pointed out. I prefer to keep villian betting at me if I make my flush. So I call the turn, make the flush, villian bets, I raise, he hopefully calls, +3BB.
As for getting a free showdown, your thinking is flawed. By raising you are paying 2BB to see the river, and you run the risk of villian improving and betting into you again on the river. Now your free showdown has cost you 3BB. By just calling the turn and calling the river it costs you 2BB and those times where you do make your flush villian will bet into you and you can raise.