Make this EV- call?

[locutus2002]

Bugsysclub $10

35 left out of 120; in addition to money top 4 get entry into freeroll for WSOP seat.

blinds 1K/2K/200 9-handed. Avg stack is ~35,000.


Hero is BB with T13,800 after posting.

UTG+1 open pushes for T15,400 after suffering bad beat previous hand.

Folded to hero? There is T19,800 in the pot and my M=~2.5. I tanked and called thinking it was slightly EV-.

Thoughts?

[ansky451]

Knowing your hand would be nice.

[Lloyd]

Okay I might be missing something but what is your hand? And what range of hands do you put the villain on?

[locutus2002]

K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Lloyd]

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And what range of hands do you put the villain on?

[/ QUOTE ]

[locutus2002]

Any broadway, any ace, any pair.

[John W]

This is a no brainer. Fold. Tilt or no tilt K 3 is K 3.

[schwza]

easy fold. it'd be nice to know the approx. value of the freeroll seat, but it's an easy fold regardless.

[Lloyd]

So you're a 62/38 dog against that range. There is t20,200 (not t19,800) in the pot and it costs you t13,400 to call since you have him covered by a little. You're getting 1.5 to 1 pot odds and you're a 1.6 to 1 dog. I just wanted to confirm (for me) that you would in fact be making a slightly -EV call and that's true.

So should you make the call? I don't think so. There are very few times you should be calling an all-in when it's -EV (even slightly). They all have to do with meta-game issues and that doesn't apply for your stack. An example would be you're a big stack in the BB and somebody pushes into you. You call knowing you're getting slightly the worst of it but you want to send a message that if people push your blind you're capable of calling with any 2 cards. And losing doesn't really hurt you.

In this situation it's a -EV call and even though you're shortstacked you still have enough chips that when you push you'll cause some damage to another's stack if you win. So I say fold and look for an opportunity to open push, even with worse cards.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold. it'd be nice to know the approx. value of the freeroll seat, but it's an easy fold regardless.

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I think the hero is still far enough away from the money that cEV equals $EV. I thought about that as well but I don't think money comes into play yet.