KQs -- does it matter what I do?

[lil feller]

Is this preflop play standard against this type of opponent?

lf

[PokerBob]

fold preflop

[amulet]

lol, i am not certain if you are baiting me or serious. as i have stated many times, i fold preflop.

[lil feller]

[ QUOTE ]
lol, i am not certain if you are baiting me or serious. as i have stated many times, i fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
No bait. This is a completely different situation. This pot is likely to be heads ups, and we know a lot about villians PFR standards, so your domination point is very valid.

Of the options I think cold-calling is the worst of the three. Against an opponent with those kind of stats my decision would be based on his WTSD%, if he likes to hang on to his hands, i'm folding. If his WTSD% is low, i'm 3betting to take initiative, and more importantly see if he caps.

lf

[Nigel]

[ QUOTE ]
no, i do not think it is a value bet. he is a tight opponent who check raised on the turn (once it got expensive), and he raised preflop. i think you are beat, and i check and showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

You put him squarely on AA with that degree of confidence?

[elmo]

People with resonable numbers have been making all sorts of silly preflop calls like this recently, am I confused, or are they strictly awful?

[Nightwish]

Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.

Flop: seems pretty standard, I want to see how this hand develops, and I'm not worried about any draws.

Turn: when he calls my 3-bet, I know he has one of 3 hands: KQ, AA, AK.

River: that 6 is obviously a problem. The worst part is that the villain knows exactly what I have. I'd be shocked if he's putting me on anything other than KQ. But of course, there's enough doubt in his mind that he wouldn't fold AK in an 11 BB pot if I were to bet the river. However, does his river check tell me anything? I think he's a little more likely to bet with AA, but if he knows that I know that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img], I can't put it past him to attempt a check-raise with it.

The bottom line is that I'm ahead of 8 hands, behind to 6, and chop with 4. So can I bet-fold? It all depends on how likely he is to have KQ. He knows I don't have KK or QQ, so the only reason for him not to cap the turn is because he's worried about 66 (obviously, he's far less worried about 66 on the river). Would I play 66 the way I did so far, including the preflop cold-call? I wouldn't, but there are many TAGs who would (I know this because I see them make these plays). Most importantly, his biggest reason for not capping the turn with KQ is that he should know that once I 3-bet, he's either behind or chopping. So I cannot quite discount the chance that he has KQ.

All of this makes the river play tricky. I'm only a little bit ahead of the hands I lose to and I'm not even sure if I can fold to a check-raise because he can now check-raise KQ almost with impunity (only one 66 hand left that he's behind to). Again, my guess is that all the options here are pretty close in terms of EV.

I elected to bet, and fortunately, he made it pretty simple for me by just calling with his AK.

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
no, i do not think it is a value bet. he is a tight opponent who check raised on the turn (once it got expensive), and he raised preflop. i think you are beat, and i check and showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? You don't think he'd play AK exactly the same way? Thinking that you must be beat here is far too weak.

[DeezNutz3]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.



[/ QUOTE ]

I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.
Thanks,
Donny

[Nightwish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: I will frequently 3-bet with KQs. However, this guy's PFR is low enough that I don't feel comfortable doing it. However, it's not so low that I feel that I should be chucking this hand (as I would if it were below 7.5 or so). To be honest, my guess is that it's pretty close between all 3 options, and calling 2 cold is the least likely of the plays I would normally choose.


[/ QUOTE ]
I am curious as to why you want to float a seemingly solid player w/ a frequently dominated hand? Why the 7.5% PFR number as the cutoff? I may be playing incorrectly but I autofold against an unknown(no reads) with these numbers. I actually don't think an 8.85% PFR is that close to floating/or as you say you would normally do, 3 bet. Interested in why you view this as a +EV hand against his range.


[/ QUOTE ]
I like 3-betting against a player like him because he's not too aggressive postflop and I suspect that I can run him off a hand even if it's A high. I'm a big fan of position. Cold-calling is not too bad either, especially if I think it will encourage others to cold-call behind me (obviously didn't happen this time). The numbers I threw out like 7.5 PFR are somewhat arbitrary in that they're based on my own experience, so I don't have any scientific evidence to back them up. But like I said, my guess is that all three preflop options are fairly close in this case.