KQs -- does it matter what I do?

[Nightwish]

Party 30/60. My opponent is definitely a TAG with 16.81/8.85/1.34 stats over 226 hands.

Do you guys think this is a value bet on the river? More importantly, why?

30/60, 10-handed. I'm dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the hijack.

Villain open-raises UTG+2, I call two cold in the hijack (MP3), everyone else folds.

Flop (2 players, 5.5 SB): 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets, I call.

Turn (2 players, 3.75 BB): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I bet, he check-raises, I 3-bet, he calls.

River (2 players, 9.75 BB): 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, I......

[1800GAMBLER]

I've changed my mind it's a betfold. You are 8:6 in favour, while i think AA is more like to screwplay the turn than AK i think some to most players lead the river with their new two pair with AA. If he auto checked the river without even seeing the card as some do, then you might have a case for checking.

[Fianchetto]

It's pretty close, but if you figure him for AA or AK, then there are 8 ways left to make AK, and 6 ways for AA....so that leads me to say bet. And if he does have AA I don't see him going for the river checkraise since you could have a set. So it seems like you are risking 1 bet to win 1 bet, and you are about 4:3 to hold the winner.

If there is any chance he could make that turn play with a worse king then you really have to bet. I don't think he could have a set because why would he slow down on the turn?

Edit: Is preflop standard? I mean the guy is a fairly tight raiser opening from EP, and I'm pretty sure QJs is a muck here. I guess a case could be made for all three options preflop, but I'm wondering if you are just mixing it up or you think calling is the best play?

[Nigel]

Easy bet. You beat everything but AA, and a checkraise there is rare. I would expect him to bet out AA on the river so as not to pay 3 bets if behind to a set.

[1800GAMBLER]

I disagree with both of you thinking villian here will worry about a set, i think most will pinpoint KQ way before 33. If he has AA and checked it, i think you are getting c/r'ed, but i'd imagine it just leads out.

Bet and call a check-raise

[Ian J]

I'd bet and fold to a checkraise. Your opponent knows (or should know) that you shouldn't have KK/QQ too ofen here because of your preflop play. So if he's thinking he'll know you have exactly KQ. Although I probably shouldn't generalize like this considering you could very well be mixing it up here w/ KK/QQ preflop.

Anyway, there's no way he's checkraising AK, so that leaves AA if he checkraises. As fianchetto already pointed out you should be betting based on hand combos. So bet.

[ggbman]

I think this is super easy. Bet and fold to a check raise. He's never check-raising a worse hand. He's never folding a king, and he won't even check-raise all the time when he has AA, so you gget to showdown anyway. I also think he would usually lead that river with AA, making AK more likely. One of the few bet/fold scenarios that i agree with.

[eviljeff]

I'm surprised no one's mentioned KQ yet. there's 4 combinations of it left. I think this possibility could easily turn a b/f into a b/c. are you guys just assuming he caps the turn with KQ?

[amulet]

no, i do not think it is a value bet. he is a tight opponent who check raised on the turn (once it got expensive), and he raised preflop. i think you are beat, and i check and showdown.