30/60 Jamming the turn

[DpR]

Results posted before I got to the thread, but FWIW, I also think he is spewing chips. While there is spefic distribution of cards that could make this a great play (and it appears that the cards were in such a distribution here as he may have bought himself a ton of outs), I do not think that is the case often enough. Obviously if you have a big club he is just spewing (could cost him 3BB-4BBs too so it better gain him a lot of equity).

Generally speaking, making semi-bluff turn raises when you might be drawing dead is not the greatest play.

[bernie]

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Your call is +EV, but your raise still isn't

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Ike's explained it pretty well. It's huge EV if you get a higher flush card to fold that allows you to win if it hits. You can gain up to 7 outs alone. That can add another 15% to your chances.

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Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds

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Actually, you should be counting the bets you might make after you hit your hand as part of your odds. Along with the likely called bets from your raise.

b

[bernie]

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Generally speaking, making semi-bluff turn raises when you might be drawing dead is not the greatest play

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So is seeing monsters under the bed that might not be there.

b

[Nightwish]

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Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds.

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I'm comparing calling and raising. In other words I'm trying to decide if its worth putting an additional bet into the 10.25 BB pot beyond the 1 I'm putting in to call. Not counting the 1 BB that goes in for the call is doing the math wrong.


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Since this is not HU, let's make some simple assumptions about UTG. Let's assume that he'll call if BB calls and fold if BB 3-bets. Let's also assume that BB is behind to the CO right now, and that if the BB 3-bets, the CO will cap with a certain probability p. Then, BB is getting 11.25:1 (counting the bet that UTG will put in if BB calls) to call and 6.625 - 1.5417*p to 1 if he 3-bets. In other words, if BB 3-bets and is behind, his odds vary linearly with p between 6.625:1 and 5.083:1.

Not very good, eh? Certainly not unless the flush draw is still good.

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I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic.

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You're wrong. If BB can get it heads up going to the river this flush should frequently be good. Why is TT one of only 3 hands you can have that don't contain a dominating club? Or, more generally, what do you feel the CO's hand range is, and why?

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CO posted and raised preflop, but his raise is unlikely to be a steal because UTG had already limped into the pot. So CO has something at that point, but his range is pretty broad. The flop does not provide much information, but the turn does. CO is very unlikely to have 97, so he's saying he has a made flush, overpair with a big club, a set, or a lone Ac. The only good flush draws for BB are if the CO has a set.

[ike]

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In other words, if BB 3-bets and is behind, his odds vary linearly with p between 6.625:1 and 5.083:1.

Not very good, eh? Certainly not unless the flush draw is still good.

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No, very good. Even if CO has AxAc and is capping with P = 1, BB is drawing to 8 outs and getting a more-than-fair price.

[bernie]

From HEPFAP: (read starting on p167) When the pot gets big, this fact should dominate your thinking.

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CO posted and raised preflop, but his raise is unlikely to be a steal because UTG had already limped into the pot. So CO has something at that point, but his range is pretty broad. The flop does not provide much information, but the turn does.

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The flop told me that the CO unlikely has a flush draw, therefore, he doesn't have the made flush on the turn. This is one reason I jam alot of hands on the flop. I could've reraised this flop with a wide range of hands. If anything, your flop play helped define your hand coupled with your turn raise. I'd have put you on an overpair (some w/possible flush draws but not necesary since my bet out on the turn is usually routine after c/r the flop so you don't have to put me on a flush either. I'm giving you credit for thinking this deep), a set, maybe A/big kick with a turned flush draw which, in that case, puts me ahead of you. So if that's the case, knocking out UTG also helps free up a possible 4-5 outs for overcards he might have on me.

b

[bernie]

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No, very good. Even if CO has AxAc and is capping with P = 1, BB is drawing to 8 outs and getting a more-than-fair price.

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Though that would be a tough turn cap with only rockets. I wouldn't cap that with aces. I'd have to really know the player to pull that one. Even then...

b

[DpR]

How bout the monsters staring you right in the face? Many poster are just insisting they are a mirage.

[bernie]

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How bout the monsters staring you right in the face? Many poster are just insisting they are a mirage.

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What monster is staring me in the face here? Look at my other responses along with Ike's, I think I read it pretty clear from the BBs perspective. CO is unlikely to have a flush on the turn. At most, he has a set.

Hindsight, even if he turned his hand over and showed me his set, I'd 3 bet this turn to try and get UTG out.

b