30/60 Jamming the turn - Page 2

Ryno · #11 07-11-2005, 12:06 PM

"Turn: Come again?"

LOL. Nuff said.

ike · #12 07-11-2005, 12:18 PM

To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

bernie · #13 07-11-2005, 02:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly. Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

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Nightwish · #14 07-11-2005, 03:02 PM

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To fold an 8-Q of clubs from UTG's hand, mainly.

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Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?

[ QUOTE ]

Basically, here's my reasoning:
You can't possibly fold here, so the 3bet is an investment of 1 more BB into an 11.5BB pot that you will sometimes improve to win. If it can ever, ever happen that you take the pot down here, and I mean ever like 2% of the time, thats significant. If you can get UTG to fold a higher club, a 7, or a 9, thats also huge. I haven't done the math and its hard to say what reasonable asssumptions to base that math on would be, but I think the 3bet comes out to be better than a call.

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Alright, let's go through the math. There are 10.25 BB in the pot (no clue where you're getting 11.5) when the action is to the BB. So if you think 3-betting the turn is right just because the others might fold, you need them to fold at least 9 percent of the time. There's no way you will take it down right here that often. But of course, a reasonable assumption is that the BB also has 0-5 outs. The problem, of course, is that even 4 outs is not enough. So the BB would have to assume that he has 5 outs or more to make even a call correct, much less a 3-bet.

Again, I stand by my original statement that this sort of play is -EV high-variance chip spewing.

bernie · #15 07-11-2005, 03:10 PM

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Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?

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You're trying to fold a higher flush draw by representing a made flush or a higher flush draw card. Make sense now?

b

ike · #16 07-11-2005, 03:17 PM

Not Q8c exactly. A club of rank between 8 and Q (if he folds A or K thats also great, but he won't).
I should have said its an 11.25 BB pot; counted the SB wrong. But its 11.25 not 10.25 because if we're deciding between calling and raising (you apparently think a fold is in order? if so i think you're nuts) one more bet of ours is effectively already in the middle.
Finally, your estimate of 0-5 outs is absurdly low. We have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw and 2 more outs to a set. If we go to the river heads up with the CO, of the hands we can reasonably expect him to have, only a made flush (which has us drawing dead) has us drawing to much fewer than 6 outs. Against the hand you actually had, for instance, the BB had 14 outs.

Nightwish · #17 07-11-2005, 03:18 PM

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Huh?? You're trying to get him to fold a single hand? And you think a loose UTG will fold a Q high flush?? And what makes you think UTG has a flush?

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You're trying to fold a higher flush draw by representing a made flush or a higher flush draw card. Make sense now?

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Did the CO magically disappear or something? He's the one who raised the turn, so why do you think that he doesn't have a made flush or even a big club? It turned out in this case that he didn't, but I claim that this is pretty rare.

You're right that BB will very likely get UTG to fold a Qc (though not an Ac or maybe even a Kc), but there are two opponents here.

Nightwish · #18 07-11-2005, 03:32 PM

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I should have said its an 11.25 BB pot; counted the SB wrong. But its 11.25 not 10.25 because if we're deciding between calling and raising (you apparently think a fold is in order? if so i think you're nuts) one more bet of ours is effectively already in the middle.

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Alright, let's go through it again. There are 6.25 BB in the pot at the beginning of the turn. BB bets, UTG calls, CO raises -- so 4 BB have gone in the pot since the beginning of the turn. BB is now getting 10.25:1, correct? Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds. The only way I can see you getting 11.25:1 is that you're assuming that UTG will call too, but then you should also realize that he'll 3-bet some fraction of the time because he'll be the one with the made A high flush.

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Finally, your estimate of 0-5 outs is absurdly low. We have an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw and 2 more outs to a set. If we go to the river heads up with the CO, of the hands we can reasonably expect him to have, only a made flush (which has us drawing dead) has us drawing to much fewer than 6 outs. Against the hand you actually had, for instance, the BB had 14 outs.

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I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic. It just won't happen that often in this specific situation where the CO has shown aggression on the turn. I happened to have had one of only three hands I could have had that didn't have a big club (or any club). But alright, let's say you have at most 8 outs. Your call is +EV, but your raise still isn't.

ike · #19 07-11-2005, 03:50 PM

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Please don't tell me you're counting bets that you haven't yet put into the pot as part of your odds.

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I'm comparing calling and raising. In other words I'm trying to decide if its worth putting an additional bet into the 10.25 BB pot beyond the 1 I'm putting in to call. Not counting the 1 BB that goes in for the call is doing the math wrong.
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I think counting a 7 high flush draw as outs is ridiculously optimistic.

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You're wrong. If BB can get it heads up going to the river this flush should frequently be good. Why is TT one of only 3 hands you can have that don't contain a dominating club? Or, more generally, what do you feel the CO's hand range is, and why?

bernie · #20 07-11-2005, 03:52 PM

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He's the one who raised the turn, so why do you think that he doesn't have a made flush or even a big club?

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If he had the made flush, he'd likely have reraised the flop with his flush draw + likely at least 1 overcard. Especially if hes a TAG.

He might have a big club. He might not be putting you on a flush as you did a protection raise on the flop. If he/or UTG caps, then you have a decision to make.

b