Value bet this river? AJo on the button

[bozlax]

Villan looks to be TPP, but not enough hands for a solid stats read, and I'm 4-tabling, so I'm not catching individual plays.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP3 checks, Hero ?

This board just kept getting scarier. I've caught a couple of guys today playing like this with just overcards, and been rivered like this with guys staying in with crapboxes. If he had bet out the river, I definitely would have called, but since he checked I figure I'm WA/WB and plan to check. Well?

[Niediam]

Why wouldn't you bet? You have TPTK and villian has not shown very much aggression.

[crownjules]

I'd bet it, calling a raise. I doubt villain was betting an 8 on the flop. If he does show overcards, thank him for not charging you as much as he should have.

[milesdyson]

Value bet this. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, or JT much more than he has any hand with an 8 or a hand that made two pair on this board.

Buddy list UTG+1 and UTG+2 by the way. Limping and folding for one more shows they are exactly the players you want sitting at your table.

[chris_a]

Considering the possible hands that he would be the flop with, and the fact that he already checked the river, you should bet this for value. More often than check-raising, a player will lead out on a river like this with an 8.

According to HEPFAP, (you are being checked to on the river) you need to be ahead 55% of the time that he'll call you here to justify betting. Considering that he bet the flop and called the turn, you will probably get this 55%.

Also, this is not the condition for a WA/WB play. "WA/WB play" seems to be the hammer for every nail for this month on micro. Do a search on the proper times to apply this.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Value bet this. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, or JT much more than he has any hand with an 8 or a hand that made two pair on this board.

Buddy list UTG+1 and UTG+2 by the way. Limping and folding for one more shows they are exactly the players you want sitting at your table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. This reaffirms my analysis of my recent play: in cases like this I'm being too passive, but in cases where I'm actually likely behind (say a K fell on the flop and Villan raised the turn) I'm playing too aggro.

Oh, and the limp/folders already have their seats on the Buddy Boat.

[NickRegino]

I would bet the river also, top pair with the highest kicker.

[Disconnected]

You should bet this, don't think you can put him on an 8. If he's tight and passive, what would you put him on to limp pre-flop and bet into a raiser on the flop that has an 8? I would guess he's got a pair, maybe top pair with a worse kicker than you, and he's calling you down.