JToff pp 400 - value bet?

emil3000 · #1 04-16-2005, 07:11 PM

have some datamined hands on villain, but haven't played with him before. stats are healthy, like 19/8/3 or so...
i am mostly thinking about river play, flop and turn is fine i think. if someone wants to correct me please do so...

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

Hero ($380)
SB ($170.4)
BB ($365)
UTG ($410.5)
UTG+1 ($525.4)
MP1 ($388)
MP2 ($379.02)
MP3 ($631.85)
CO ($415)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $4, 4 folds, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls $14.

Flop: ($42) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($42) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $30, Hero raises to $90, UTG+1 calls $60.

River: ($222) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero?

chuddo · #2 04-16-2005, 07:21 PM

i think you are definitely ahead in the hand, and you need to try to get more money in the pot.

the problem i think that there is a strong chance villian has nothing at all here and won't pay you off.

had he had KQc on the flop and caught running trips, i think he makes a small block/value bet on the river. i don't think a flopped set would risk the check-behind on board pairing river and go for a check-raise. so i think you are good.

now how to go about getting money from a busted draw/no hand?

if the player is capable of bluff-c/ring a river scare card when faced with a huge bet, go ahead and throw out a 1/2 pot bet, but only if willing to call if he pushes. if not just check behind.

who knows, maybe he can make a crying call if he had 1010, missed a flop-checkraise, and then was scared of the action.

weird spot, but i don't think you are making much more money.

partygirluk · #3 04-16-2005, 07:51 PM

I think a set is reraising the turn on this board, so you are almost certainly ahead. He probably has a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in which case you won't get any more out of him. Might be worth throwing out $80 on the river, tempting him to call with a weak holding, but more importantly I'd want him to fold as I don't want him to see what kind of hands I am raising on the button otherwise he might start taking shots preflop.

Wayfare · #4 04-16-2005, 08:02 PM

I bet the flop, I raise the turn, and I move in on the river.

JimmyJazz1 · #5 04-16-2005, 08:05 PM

Whats with the preflop raise? Just switching it up because of your TAG image or do you always raise J10o pf?

emil3000 · #6 04-16-2005, 08:11 PM

Have been known to lag it up on the button... Most often the hands are suited connectors. I rarely raise JToff.

emil3000 · #7 04-17-2005, 04:41 AM

I bet 170, he checkraised all in, I called and got shown deuces full.

Popinjay · #8 04-17-2005, 03:38 PM

Why did you pay that off? that is a pretty clear fold imo, he is only doing that with hands you lose to

emil3000 · #9 04-17-2005, 03:47 PM

6 to 1 or so... maybe still a fold.

muzungu · #10 04-17-2005, 05:41 PM

Why no flop bet? Builds the pot for you if they call and you hit, and if you miss you will have the option of taking a free card or firing again on the turn. Plus, since you have no showdown value at the moment, taking it down right here is also fine for you. I realize it is important to mix in flop checks after raising preflop, but unless villain c/rs a lot of flops I do not think this is a good spot for one.

-muz