QQ hand for review

[Potowame]

3rd hand of trny no real reads, Reraised to thin the field. Play on UB singles seems loose latley, so I played it this way.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10 (10 handed)

UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t1060)
MP3 (t990)
CO (t1005)
Button (t985)
SB (t960)
BB (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t35</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t85.

Flop: (t255) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t255) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets t125</font>, Hero calls t125.

River: (t505) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets t300</font>, Hero calls t300.

Final Pot: t1105

[chill888]

I don't know.

But I hate the check post flop - not if it means you are then going to assume he doesn't have an ace and call him down on future streets. Once the river comes there are a lot more hands that could beat you than any Ace.

I'm guessing you either won or lost due to the river card.

You showed strenth preflop, Ace showed up and he checked. I'd bet exactly the same bet post flop as preflop - he will fold 75% of time.

If he doesn't, I wouldn't put another nickel in without improving. Still early days.

gl

[Potowame]

Results,

Well the check on the flop was not my mormal play, But I cant see most players check an ace to me here, so my reasoning at the time was too see what the turn brought and go from there.

turn , This bet seemed strange to me. I thought is that weak ace or betting JX or Smaller PP.

River, This was a tougher call here But I went with my initial read of no ace. This limited me to I guess him making this move with a marginal hand to win.

(1010, 88, JX, or a bluff)


He turned over QJos I raked the pot


I was thinking that this was not the best play by me, but I want some others point of view. I know this would be very bad in 30 buy-in up, but this was a 10.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
But I cant see most players check an ace to me here

[/ QUOTE ]
I can see checking an ace here being a good play for the precise reasons you checked your QQ: to induce bets from aggressive players holding worse hands.

[ QUOTE ]
I know this would be very bad in 30 buy-in up, but this was a 10.

[/ QUOTE ]
For this case, I don't think the play becomes better or worse by virtue of the level, the play becomes better or worse based on the agressiveness of the player involved. In a very strange, almost subconscious way, I think I like your play here. The ace is an action killer. If you bet this flop after having raised pre-flop, villan will fold a hand worse than QQ for sure, and call with better ones (an ace). It's extremely unlikely you can get any ace, even A2o, to fold. Checking is the only way to get money from a worse hand.

So your options seem to be:
1) Gamble he does not have an ace and induce bluffs (or mistaken value bets) by checking, or
2) Stab at the pot hoping he doesn't have an ace, and shut down completely if he calls.

The nightmare scenario for taking line #1 is when your opponent catches a draw from your free cards, but you only have one overcard to fear and the board is fairly harmless.

Can anyone give rationale for an estimate on the probability of the villan having an ace? I think the right answer invovles some Bayesian thinking.